Apr 13 2008
Carolinas Expected to Gain Congressional Seats
Two current rankings mention the Carolinas prominently:
Clark Benson of Polidata Political Data Analysis predicts that each of the Carolinas will receive one new congressional seat, bringing South Carolina to seven and North Carolina to 14. Benson notes, however, that states such as Pennsylvania, Washington and California could overtake either Carolina.
Kimball W. Brace of Election Data Services uses three different models for his apportionment forecast. The two models that use short-term and midrange growth patterns - which he says may be more accurate, given recent housing market fluctuations - both show a new seat for both Carolinas, but the long-term model does not include either state.
For the most part, both analysts show states in the Northeast and Midwest losing seats to Texas, south Atlantic states and the Southwest, reflecting the nation’s southerly and westerly population shifts. One notable exception is Louisiana, projected to lose one seat after the large exodus from the state after Hurricane Katrina.
It is fairly definite that North Carolina will gain a seat. This is the first I have heard of South Carolina, even though it has been growing. People are leaving the old Rust Belt of the northeast and heading down south where there is sun, jobs, and better economies. The New Deal policies of the north have failed and the growth in large states like New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio have been slowing to a crawl. The low tax, business friendly environment of the southeast and southwest are welcoming a whole new generation to our states to share in and continue to build the newly found prosperity.
Very interesting, I have to wonder where the new districts will be carved. The Dems could create themselves a new district in west NC by sticking Boone and Asheville together.
Ah, Gerrymandering- the great tradition of cowardly political hacks picking their voters so they don’t have to work too hard! I love politics!
Seriously, when can we get a non-partisan commission in there to draw some compact and competitive districts?
Oh, and as an ex-New Yorker, I hope the liberals in my state continue to enjoy the putrid, festering swamp-pit of taxes and ineffective government they created in my old home. I, meanwhile, am liking North Carolina very much since I moved here.