Carolina Politics Online

As we all know the North Carolina primary is coming up on Tuesday and there are lots of races across the state for voters to decide. I am going to weigh in on a few here. Note, I am giving my opinion on who I think will win, not necessarily who I think is the best candidate or would like to see win.

I have already given my opinion on how I think the 11th Congressional Republican Primary will turn out.

In the Lieutenant Governor’s race there are primaries on both sides of the aisle. The Republican race is easy to call. Robert Pittenger has it locked up, end of story. The Democratic race is going to be a little more tight, but I think Walter Dalton is going to prevail by about 7 points, with Dellinger finishing second.

There are primaries on both sides in the 10th Congressional District as well. On the Democratic side I believe that Daniel Johnson will prevail over Ivester quite handily. On the GOP side, I think McHenry will win by a large margin. I think Sigmon’s ad about the Iraq attack after McHenry ran his video was a bit much for people to swallow and may have backfired on him. I think people viewed it as a cheap and dirty shot. I guess we’ll see on Tuesday. McHenry’s internals show him winning in a landslide. I don’t foresee as bad of a bloodbath as McHenry says it will be, but it won’t be a close race.

The Third Congressional District is going to be closer than people think, in my opinion. I predict that Walter Jones will triumph in the end, but not by a landslide margin. I think most Republicans in the district hold him in decent to high regards. I don’t feel that McLaughlin hitting Jones on his reversal of the war is a winning issue. The majority of Americans have grown tired of Iraq and that includes Republicans. Despite the high proportion of military families in the district, I don’t see Jones in much danger. People are also assuming that military families are automatically dedicated to the continued job in Iraq and that’s not a horse I would bet my money on.

In the U.S. Senate race Kay Hagan is going to trounce Jim Neal. That’s all I have to say about that.

Regarding the Presidential race, Barack Obama is going to win, but I don’t think he’ll break a ten point spread against Clinton. She has been gaining ground on him due to two things: her win in Pennsylvania and the continued media focus on Jeremiah Wright.

And now for the big one, the gubernatorial race. Bev Perdue wins the Democratic nomination hands down. Throughout the campaign she has generally lead Richard Moore, but there have been a few times that he has caught up with her in the polls. However, I think his sleazy attack ad about her husband selling Confederate memorabilia in his stores hasn’t played well with the public and it’s going to cost any chance he may have had.

On the Republican side, this is going to be close. While it’s technically a four man race, only Fred Smith and Pat McCrory are viable contenders on Tuesday. I think McCrory is going to pull this out, but not by much. It may not be enough for him to avoid a runoff and if that’s the case I think the following runoff election will favor Smith.

So there you have it. Tuesday awaits!

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