Sep
06
2008
Democracy Corps is James Carville’s organization. This poll was taken from August 20th through August 26th.
| NC-01 |
Party |
% of Vote |
| G.K. Butterfield |
D |
76% |
| Dean Stephens |
R |
18% |
| NC-02 |
Party |
% of Vote |
| Bob Etheridge |
D |
55% |
| Dan Mansell |
R |
38% |
| NC-03 |
Party |
% of Vote |
| Walter Jones |
R |
67% |
| Craig Weber |
D |
21% |
| NC-04 |
Party |
% of Vote |
| David Price |
D |
70% |
| BJ Lawson |
R |
25% |
| NC-05 |
Party |
% of Vote |
| Virginia Foxx |
R |
48% |
| Roy Carter |
D |
46% |
| NC-06 |
Party |
% of Vote |
| Howard Coble |
R |
71% |
| Teresa Sue Bratton |
D |
23% |
| NC-07 |
Party |
% of Vote |
| Mike McIntyre |
D |
56% |
| Will Breazeale |
R |
35% |
| NC-08 |
Party |
% of Vote |
| Robin Hayes |
R |
50% |
| Larry Kissell |
D |
42% |
| NC-09 |
Party |
% of Vote |
| Sue Myrick |
R |
58% |
| Harry Taylor |
D |
31% |
| NC-10 |
Party |
% of Vote |
| Patrick McHenry |
R |
54% |
| Daniel Johnson |
D |
39% |
| NC-11 |
Party |
% of Vote |
| Heath Shuler |
D |
66% |
| Carl Mumpower |
R |
27% |
Now you should bear in mind that the samples were very small, less than 100 people in each Congressional district, so there is going to be a larger margin of error than in most polls. However, most of these percentages seem fairly accurate to me. The only two I question is NC-05 and NC-08. I don’t think that Virginia Foxx is in a statistical tie with Roy Carter, though I don’t doubt he isn’t close to her. I also think the gap between Robin Hayes and Larry Kissell is smaller than the eight point spread shown in this poll. Shuler is crushing Mumpower which I have been saying since the birth of this blog would be the case no matter which Republican Heath runs against. Plus, the fact that Mumpower’s race has been akin to a Barnum & Bailey juggling act only makes it more so. I don’t know why NC-12 and NC-13 were not included on this poll, but I think the conventional wisdom is that neither Mel Watt nor Brad Miller have much to worry about this year.
All and all, I don’t see any of the Congressional districts in North Carolina switching parties this year. I think all of the incumbents are going to be retained. If Kissell loses, I’m afraid my friends at BlueNC will become suicidal.
Update: I mistakenly had the Fifth District Democratic candidate listed as Roy Cooper instead of Roy Carter. That has been corrected.
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No way is Foxx that close. The sample size was less than 80 people and the survey was generic. It nevers mentions Foxx’s name.
On the national polls, the Democrat presidential generic ballot shows the Democrat up 15 points. But we all know that when you say Obama or McCain the race gets tighter.
I am sure the Dems have succeeded in one thing… They will get Foxx fired up.
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Roy Cooper is the state A.G.
Roy Carter is a Congressional Candidate.
I think the turnout in Meck (ever so small in the 8th) will be the difference in the 8th -turnout there in ‘04′ was 65%. look for this to be in the high seventies this time.
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the candidate’s name is Roy Carter, not Cooper.
The sampling is small, sure, but the reality of the situation is that Carter is gaining on Foxx. She should feel threatened. Roy Carter is going to defeat her in November. It is time she is held accountable for her voting record.
Of course she is going to go on the defense, taking pages from the Rove playbook, play on fears, make false accusations and libelous statements… Dole is doing that not to Hagan as well, it is what happens when gaps close.
She doesn’t have much of a choice, she can’t use her voting record to prove herself to voters, she will lose for sure!
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Got my Roys confused. Sorry!
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I am a democrat and even i know that there is no way David Price is 45% ahead of BJ Lawson
A parrot running as a gopper in the 4th district gets 35% of the vote. I heard from a good source that Lawson did an internal poll and he was on 40% to David’s 55% with 5% undecided.
I fully expect Congressman Price to win by about 15%. I do know a lot of Democratic folks are getting upset over David’s cosying up to the Department of Homeland Security.
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Personally, the Democracy Corps polls all look very off to me. Firstly, each of the polls surveys significantly less than 100 people. One cannot do a poll that can credibly be called a scientific poll unless it contains 400 respondents, and even then there is a 7% MoE. Secondly, there are very strange results. Bob Etheridge has somehow lost a ton of points from what he won in 2006 when he slaughtered Mansell, even though Mansell has raised pennies and his campaign is doing practically nothing? I don’t buy it. Etheridge could rape a 15 year old boy and win at least 65% of the vote in the 2nd District. He’s got perhaps more of a hold on that district than any other incumbent in the state.
And then there is the 4th District race. As Peter said, there is absolutely no way that David Price is beating B.J. Lawson by 45 pp, which would basically mean that Lawson is doing worse than Price’s previous Republican challengers. He’s a much more appealing and effective candidate and running a much better campaign than the likes of Nguyen, Batchelor, and Acuff. Lawson is appealing to a number of Democrats who are upset with Price over NBAF and who like B.J.’s anti-war stance and his stance on Civil Liberties. I would say low-40s is a good estimation of where he is right now. While it will be tough for him to win, it will be much, much closer than the Democracy Corps poll implies.
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[...] recent poll put out by Democracy Corps has shown Virginia Foxx (NC-05, Statesville, Boone, Mount Airy) to be [...]
Democracy Corps North Carolina Polling Results –Dr. Teresa Sue Bratton’s stands on portable healthcare, early child education, jobs and support of small business owners, measures to help mitigate foreclosures and bankruptcies, measures for safe, healthier food and a healthy environment, and measures to help the average family afford food, gas, and medicines are making a difference in the polls. Teresa Sue Bratton, M.D. believes that when our young men and women sign up to serve America, that we Americans sign up to serve them: our veterans deserve a new GI Bill (that Coble has voted against); our veterans and their families should not be forced to live on food stamps. They should not have to fight for healthcare when they return from the war zones. We need to fight for them. On any given day 200,000 veterans are homeless; in any given year 400,000 veterans are homeless. We need to provide training for our citizens when they have lost their jobs. It is time for a CHANGE in WASHINGTON ! Dr. Teresa Sue Bratton is moving ahead in the polls as her message of help and change spreads across District 6.
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Well Kent, if you happen to see Dr. Bratton ask her to respond to my email I sent her. I emailed her a couple of weeks ago asking several questions about her stances on the issues and I have gotten no response. I would love to do a post on her views.
While the writers here are right leaning, Democrats are very much welcome here.
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There are exactly 46 folks in this sample for CD-08. That gives us a whopping 15% margin of error with a 95% CI.
Garbage.
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