Sep 14 2008
Carolinas Projected to Gain Congressional Seat in 2010
Polidata did a projection based on population trends over the past decade and are predicting that both North Carolina and South Carolina will gain a Congressional seat after the 2010 Census and with that an extra electoral vote in the Presidential elections. This would bring North Carolina up to 14 seats in Congress and 16 electoral votes and South Carolina up to 7 seats in Congress and 9 electoral votes. The bigger question is which party will benefit from this change.
In South Carolina the seventh Congressional seat will almost certainly go to the Republicans. They dominate the state and already hold four of the six seats we have and the Democrats are already on borrowed time in SC-05. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Spratt’s retirement in 2012. North Carolina is a bit more tricky, though. The Democrats control the state legislature and have enough of a majority that it doesn’t look like that will change come time for reapportionment. However, the Democrats already have the districts gerrymandered fairly well so it’s hard to know whether or not they’ll be able to add another district that will produce another Democrat. The gerrymandering in this state is some of the worst I have ever seen. A Governor McCrory, however, could throw a wrench in all of that should he be sitting in the Raleigh mansion at that time.
