Carolina Politics Online

So Election 2008 is now over and your friendly admin of CPO can slack off for a little while now.  We saw some big changes last night around the country and also right here in the Carolinas.

North Carolina has turned blue.  By a fraction of a hair it went to Obama last night.  He earned it.  His campaign had the ground game to make it happen.

Kay Hagan predictably ousted Elizabeth Dole by a handy margin.  Dole got slaughtered with outside 527 ads and I think the “Godless” ad she ran against Hagan sealed her fate.

One Congressional seat changed hands and that was the 8th Congressional District held by Republican Robin Hayes.  This was expected to happen, but I was hoping Hayes would pull it out only because I think Larry Kissell is the wrong man for that seat.  His energy policies are an infantile fantasy that will hurt his constituents which are mostly low income.  Virginia Foxx, Heath Shuler, and Patrick McHenry easily won reelection.

In statewide races, Bev Perdue (D) narrowly defeated Pat McCrory (R) for the gubernatorial race.  This made me very angry.  It could not have been more obvious who the candidate of change was in this race.  Bev Perdue will continue the same status quo culture of corruption that has plagued Raleigh for years.  I think straight party voting caused this victory.  Likewise, State Senator Walter Dalton (D) defeated State Senator Robert Pittenger (R) in the Lieutenant Governor’s race by a slightly larger margin.

Democrat Beth Wood defeated Republican incumbent Les Merritt in the Auditor’s race which is another blow to the state.  Merritt was the only firewall defending the people from the corruption in the state legislature and now that is gone.  Roy Cooper (D), Steve Troxler (R), Cherie Berry (R), Elaine Marshall (D), and June Atkinson (D) all got reelected to their posts.  State Senator Janet Cowell (D) is now the new State Treasurer and Democrat Wayne Goodwin won the Insurance Commissioner’s race.

The Republican Party in North Carolina is extremely incompetent.

In the State Legislature Debbie Ann Clary won the race in Senate District 46 flipping that from Democrat to Republican.  In State House District 86 Republican Hugh Blackwell defeated Democratic incumbent Walter Church and in State House District 90 Republican Sarah Stevens ousted incumbent Democrat Jim Harrell.

South Carolina gave our electoral votes to John McCain last night and we were the only Atlantic coast state to do so.  Lindsey Graham easily won reelection to the U.S. Senate.  All six Congressmen won reelections to their seats as well.

In the state legislature there weren’t many changes.  Republican Kris Crawford did win reelection in House District 63.  I said last night that he lost.  Anton Gunn picked up House District 79 for the Democrats.  The District 115 race between Republican incumbent Wallace Scarborough and Democrat Anne Peterson Hutto is too close to call at this time, althought Scarborough has claimed victory.

The ballot amendment to change the Constitution to allow the state legislature to set the age of consent passed.

It’s not just the next President we’re electing on Tuesday; we’ve got all kinds of races going on in both states from the U.S. Senate down to your local school board.  I have put together a list of state and Federal races that should be carefully followed Tuesday night as I imagine they will be close.

• President - Obviously everyone knows we’ll be choosing our next President.  I think John McCain is going to carry both North and South Carolina, North by a hair and South easily, however I think Barack Obama will end up becoming the next President.
• NC US Senate Race - This has been a brutal race between Elizabeth Dole and Kay Hagan.  I think Hagan is going to emerge the victor in this in no small part by the Dole campaign’s “Godless” ad.  I think that hurt Dole more than Hagan.
• NC Gubernatorial Race - Another nail biter, but I think and pray that Pat McCrory ends up the next governor and I am going to make a very bold prediction here.  I think his Lt Governor will end up being Democrat Walter Dalton, not Pittenger.  McCrory has been leading by three or four points in the last few polls that have come out.  If people really are change oriented as they claim then McCrory should prevail.  He is the candidate of sorely needed change in Raleigh.
• NC 5th Congressional District - Virginia Foxx has received a tougher than anticipated challenge from Roy Carter, but I think Foxx will be reelected.
• NC 8th Congressional District - If Robin Hayes pulls out a reelection victory Tuesday night I will be stunned.  I just don’t see it and I think that Larry Kissell will be the 8th District’s new Congressman.  I think this will be the only Congressional District to flip in both states.
• NC Auditor General - I think Les Merritt will be okay, but it will be a close victory.  As I have stated in recent days, voters would be doing a disservice to themselves by replacing him.  He is the only watchdog the people have had against the majority party in Raleigh.
• NC Labor Commissioner - I think Cherie Berry is going to lose.  I think people will make a mental connection between Labor Commissioner and a soured economy.  They have absolutely nothing to do with each other, but when you think of a bad economy you think of job losses, hence labor, and people tend to relate to Democrats better than Republicans on labor issues.
• NC Senate District 9 - I think Julia Boseman will come out on top in this one, but I still expect a close race considering the money that has been spent on it on both sides.
• NC Senate District 25 - Tony Foriest just won this seat in 2006 and faces a challenge from Rick Gunn to take the seat back for the GOP.  I think Foriest will get reelected.
• NC Senate DIstrict 46 - This is Walter Dalton’s Senate seat that he is vacating to run for Lieutenant Governor.  This should be a Republican pickup.  It’s fairly conservative and has leaned Republican for some time now, but Dalton has hung on due to incumbency and having a more conservative voting record.
• SC Senate District 10 - This is John Drummond’s seat and he decided to retire after many years in public service.  The seat is being strongly contested on both sides with Dee Compton as the Republican candidate and Greenwood Mayor Floyd Nicholson on the Democratic ticket.  This has the potential to go either way, but I think the Democrats will hold this seat.
• SC Senate District 25 - I think this will be the closest race of all of them.  Republican Shane Massey won this seat last year in a special election after the former Democratic Senator Tommy Moore resigned from the Senate for a more lucrative career opportunity.  This seat actually leans slightly Democratic, but Massey has never really stopped campaigning since he won it.  He faces Democrat Greg Anderson.  This is too close for me to make a call on how this will turn out.
• SC House District 115 - Wallace Scarborough almost lost his seat in 2006 when his challenger came within a little over 300 votes of him.  He faces another strong challenge this year from Anne Peterson Hutto, but I think Scarborough is going to hang on by a larger margin than ‘06.

Republican Rep. Robin Hayes said yesterday that he was wrong to tell voters at a John McCain rally that “liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God.”

Hayes, a five-term member of the U.S. House of Representatives, made the comment Saturday in Concord before McCain’s appearance. He is being challenged for re-election in the 8th District in south-central North Carolina by Democrat Larry Kissell, who almost beat him in 2006. “I genuinely did not recall making the statement and, after reading it, there is no doubt that it came out completely the wrong way,” Hayes said in a prepared statement.

Winston-Salem Journal

It doesn’t matter what Hayes says at this point.  The damage was done and Hayes is going to be retired from Congress in two weeks.  This has become Kissell’s race to lose.

It’s 49% for second-time challenger Larry Kissell (D), 41% for fifth-term US Rep. Robin Hayes (R), says a SurveyUSA poll taken in the Tar Heel State’s 8th District (Concord, etc.) on October 4-5 for Roll Call newspaper. The poll is in line with a Democratic poll, taken September 28-29 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, which gave Kissell a 54% to 43% lead. In 2006, Hayes edged out Kissell by a razor-thin 329 votes.

Southern Political Report

The news is bad for Hayes this year and it keeps getting worse.  With the election clearly having moved towards Obama’s favor and his lead growing in some polls it’s looking less likely that Hayes is going to hang on again like he did in ‘06.

It’s getting to be close to Election Day so the annoying political ads on TV are popping up about every five minutes now.  And here I present you with a tribute to all those exciting ads that we just lick our chops for every election season.

Robin Hayes is desperate!!

The NRCC sent out a press release this morning accusing Larry Kissell of not supplying his campaign staffers with workers’ compensation insurance as required by North Carolina law.

But a review of the database from the North Carolina Industrial Commission shows no record of Kissell having workers’ compensation coverage for his employees - placing him in violation of North Carolina law.

According to the last Federal Election Commission (FEC) report, Kissell had six employees on payroll

I went to the North Carolina Industrial Commission’s Q&A Web site and found the following information regarding which employers are required to provide this insurance to their employees.  Here is what it says:

In order to determine if you are required by law to carry workers’ compensation insurance, you must first determine your business entity, i.e., sole proprietorship, partnership, limited liability company (LLC), corporation, agricultural operation, business with radiation, estate, trust, etc.

If you are a sole proprietorship, partnership, LLC, estate, or trust, you are required by law to carry coverage once you have three (3) employees who are regularly employed, in addition to the sole proprietor, partners, formulators of the LLC, executor of the estate, and bearer of the trust. It does not matter if these employees are full time, part time, regular seasonal or family members.

If you are incorporated, including all forms of corporations and those which have non-profit status, you are required by law to carry coverage once you have a total of three (3) people in the corporation. Everyone is included in the headcount, including corporate officers.

Businesses with radiation are required by law to carry coverage when they have one (1) employee. An agricultural operation must carry coverage when there are ten (10) or more regular, non-seasonal employees. Any other business entity not mentioned above would use the three (3) or more employees rule.

Being that Kissell for Congress is not an agricultural operation, it would appear that Kissell is indeed required to have this compensation if he has at least three employees.  The press release lists six employees on hand for Kissell and point to an article in The Fayetteville Observer discussing Kissell’s hiring of five campaign workers back in June.

I went to the North Carolina Industrial Commission’s online database and when I do a generic search just on Kissell under employer I get 12 hits, but none are for Kissell’s campaign.  If you put in Robin Hayes he does come up, as does Heath Shuler and others.

It would appear that these allegations against Kissell are true, unless his campaign can come up with some kind of tangible proof that they haven’t skirted the law here.  If indeed he has, where is the law enforcement?

Oil has fallen below $100 a barrel, but Charlotte is still paying $120 a barrel prices.  The reason is Hurricane Ike and the lack of refining capacity in the Houston area to continue to meet the demand of the Charlotte region after the refineries were shut down or damaged.  The average per gallon price in Charlotte is $3.90 per gallon, roughly 40 cents above the national average. Here in York County, SC we are fairing slightly better than Charlotte.  I saw gas this morning at $3.69, but South Carolina is usually one of the lowest in the country, so this is not all that great of news.

That hurricane should be a major wake up call to Congress about the economic vulnerability of our nation.  When one storm can cripple an entire region of the country, that is a serious problem, not to mention a national security risk.  Osama can be sitting over in Pakistan right now stroking his beard and thinking to himself, “Gee, one big bomb in the Gulf of Mexico could wipe out half of America’s energy supply in seconds and cause an economic catastrophy never before seen.”

Yet, despite this threat and sizable inconvenience to the people of this region, candidates running for office like Larry Kissell, who is seeking to unseat Congressman Robin Hayes (R-NC08), refuses to support expanding domestic drilling to additional parts of the nation and instead insists on making his would be constituents wait a couple of decades for alternative fuel sources to be developed enough for practical use.  Presidential candidate John McCain continues to withhold backing of ANWR drilling, a project that would take up about as much space as the Douglas Airport in Charlotte and yet is stuck in the middle of an area roughly the size of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island combined.  While Obama states in his Web site that he supports shale drilling in the midwest and increased refinery capacity in existing oil fields, he still opposes offshore drilling in our own two states.  Furthermore, Lt Governor Bev Perdue had to be dragged kicking and screaming into saying that she would not be completely opposed to offshore drilling in North Carolina as governor, however her staunch resistance to this idea in the past casts doubt on her sincerity.

When Charlotte voters go to the polls next month these are some of the facts they need to be taking with them when making their decision.  Who is allowing you to live freely and who is taking it from you?

I received the following press release from the NRCC:

For Immediate Release: Contact: Press Office
September 25, 2008 (202) 479-7070*

Kissell Still Coming Up Empty on Energy

No Drilling, No Solutions

Washington - Despite an ongoing energy crisis in North Carolina and across the country, Larry Kissell adamantly insists that all will be wall as long as the country comes together to agree on a mysterious program, the details of which he refuses to divulge. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hit the North Carolina airwaves with an ad attacking Kissell’s opponent on energy, but no one not even Kissell himself can seem to figure out Kissell’s so-called energy plan.

Kissell likes to spin his non-plan as a solution to the country’s energy crisis, but every time he opens his mouth, it’s clear that he has little to offer the North Carolina voters who struggle with high gas prices every day.

When discussing the energy crisis at a campaign event, Kissell insisted upon giving a non-answer to a question about his non-plan:

Larry Kissell: We’ve got to have a program, not just bits and pieces.

Audience Member: Well what is your program?

Kissell: To pull everybody together and create a program that works.

Though Kissell refused to give any answer about what his “program” actually entails, his appearance
on WDYT Charlotte’s Mornings with Jon Robinson spells out a clear picture of just how big of a disaster Kissell’s energy non-agenda would be for North Carolina.

Jon Robinson: You mentioned energy. How about, would you support offshore exploration for natural gas off the North Carolina coast.

Larry Kissell: (Interrupting) No.

Robinson: or oil refineries…

Kissell: (Interrupting) No.

Robinson: What’s that?

Kissell: No.

Robinson: No? But you want energy independence… This is the power of the United States. What about oil refineries in the United States?

Kissell: (Interrupting) We can get it without having to do that. We do not have to sacrifice everything.

Robinson: ANWR…

Kissell: We do not have to sacrifice everything for the future, things for our kids? We’ve done enough of that already…

Robinson: So, the taxpayers have to pay more money?

Unfortunately for Kissell, this do-nothing, drill-nothing approach doesn’t hold water with North Carolina voters who demand immediate action toward lower gas prices and energy  independence.

I’m not a fan of Robin Hayes, but I am certainly not going to show Larry Kissell any support when he refuses to address this issue in a serious manner. North Carolina and the rest of the country is hurting over these high gas prices and this jackass refuses to support any common sense solutions and instead insists on speaking in platitudes about fantasy alternatives and a plan that doesn’t exist.   Kissell has so far proven that he isn’t a quality candidate for Congress and will be just another twit mucking up the works in D.C.

No thanks!  We have enough of those.

Congressman Dave Loebsack (D-IA) is giving away to various charities, campaign money he has received from the scandal plagued Congressman Charlie Rangel (D-NY).  Rangel has been found guilty of failing to pay thousands of dollars in taxes on income he earned from property he’s been renting out in the Domincan Republic.

According to an NRCC press release, both Daniel Johnson and Larry Kissell are still holding on to contributions given to them by Rangel for this election year.  Additionally, the NRCC accuses Kissell of having “been caught skirting tax laws before, by not paying Social Security, Unemployment or Medicare tax on any campaign worker from 2005 until June 2008–cheating his employees and North Carolina taxpayers by avoiding the payroll taxes employers are required to pay on workers.”

Democracy Corps is James Carville’s organization. This poll was taken from August 20th through August 26th.

Now you should bear in mind that the samples were very small, less than 100 people in each Congressional district, so there is going to be a larger margin of error than in most polls. However, most of these percentages seem fairly accurate to me. The only two I question is NC-05 and NC-08. I don’t think that Virginia Foxx is in a statistical tie with Roy Carter, though I don’t doubt he isn’t close to her. I also think the gap between Robin Hayes and Larry Kissell is smaller than the eight point spread shown in this poll. Shuler is crushing Mumpower which I have been saying since the birth of this blog would be the case no matter which Republican Heath runs against. Plus, the fact that Mumpower’s race has been akin to a Barnum & Bailey juggling act only makes it more so. I don’t know why NC-12 and NC-13 were not included on this poll, but I think the conventional wisdom is that neither Mel Watt nor Brad Miller have much to worry about this year.

All and all, I don’t see any of the Congressional districts in North Carolina switching parties this year. I think all of the incumbents are going to be retained. If Kissell loses, I’m afraid my friends at BlueNC will become suicidal.

Update: I mistakenly had the Fifth District Democratic candidate listed as Roy Cooper instead of Roy Carter. That has been corrected.

Two years ago, U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes of the 8th District defeated Larry Kissell by 329 votes. This is the first of a two-part series in Inside Politics looking at this year’s rematch. Next week’s column focuses on Kissell.

Robin Hayes says the No. 1 issue this election is not Iraq. It’s the skyrocketing cost of gasoline.

The Republican from Concord says one way to begin lowering energy costs is to open more areas in the U.S. to drilling. The five-term incumbent agrees with President Bush and this year’s presumptive GOP nominee, John McCain, who are calling for more drilling offshore and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

“My opponent won’t allow drilling,” Hayes said in a telephone interview.

Kissell wants oil companies to drill more on existing land leases — not in new areas of the country.

The Fayetteville Observer

I think this will be a huge issue and Republicans as well as pro-drilling Democrats can capitalize on it.  Most people really don’t understand how the oil markets work.  They just know that the price of oil is skyrocketing and costing them at the pump.  Politicians who run on a platform of opening up offshore drilling to increase supply and thus reduce the price will definitely hit home with the voters.  Kissell is foolish to oppose this in my opinion.  This isn’t an overwhelmingly left wing district and home to lots of extreme environmentalists that would support Kissell’s opposition to this.

Democrat Larry Kissell, the Biscoe teacher who came within 330 votes of a seat in Congress two years ago, has three times the cash he had at the same point in his last bid, but is still dwarfed by Rep. Robin Hayes’ fundraising.

Kissell had $232,000 cash on hand as of June 30, compared to $83,000 two years ago, campaign finance reports filed Tuesday show.

Charlotte Observer

This is probably going to be the biggest up in the air race in this election year.  If I were to base my analysis on history, I would say odds are Kissell would lose.  In 1994 there a few Republicans that came very close to picking off Democrat incumbents and when they ran against them again in 1996 they lost by a larger margin than before.  However, 2008 is not the same political environment as 1996.  With an energized Democratic electorate behind Barack Obama, Kissell could improve his numbers and emerge victorious.  I don’t underestimate Obama’s ability to implode before the election, though.

I won’t even attempt to make a prediction in this race.  It’s too tough to call.

Democratic Congressional candidate Larry Kissell pumped up his campaign Sunday by selling gas for $1.22 a gallon, highlighting the energy votes of Republican incumbent Rep. Robin Hayes.

Kissell spent almost three hours selling the cheap gas to a few hundred motorists in downtown Biscoe. He used a similar campaign tactic in his narrow loss to Hayes two years ago.

“The people were very appreciative, very patient and appeared very quickly,” Kissell said.

The Herald-Sun

Kissell gets credit for thinking outside the box and being creative.  However, I still see this as vote buying and any voter who would throw their support to any candidate based on that candidate giving them discounted gasoline is a bonehead.  Kissell’s party has been mostly responsible for the high prices of gasoline in this country by their refusal to allow more domestic drilling and their catering to extremists environmentalist groups which has caused higher energy prices.

There is no one solution to energy costs.  There are several.  Alternative fuels are part of the solution as is nuclear power, but so is increasing today’s current supply of oil.  Unless Kissell is prepared to support these solutions, his recent campaign stunt is nothing more than hypocritical.

House Republicans filed a complaint Monday with the Federal Election Commission against the Biscoe school teacher who came close to unseating Rep. Robin Hayes, R-N.C.

The National Republican Campaign Committee said Larry Kissell’s campaign filings “show a pattern of inaccuracies and misrepresentations.”

“Kissell’s debt magically disappears, then reappears with no rhyme or reason as to how debt was paid or created,” according to the complaint, signed by Elizabeth Beacham, chief counsel to the House GOP’s political arm. “At a time when voters demand transparency of elected officials, Kissell’s reports reflect a candidate who either a) is hiding something from the public, or b) is clearly incapable of filing accurate FEC reports.”

Charlotte Observer

I don’t know much about Kissell, but he was supported by the Progressive Patriots Fund, which is chaired by Russ Feingold, so that pretty much tells you all you need to know.

National Democrats are salivating over those 329 votes that Rep. Robin Hayes got over teacher Larry Kissell in the last election.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said it would air beginning today 60-second radio ads attacking the Concord Republican’s voting record.

Charlotte Observer