Carolina Politics Online

There will be a Republican primary in the 4th congressional district again as GOP candidates line up to face Democratic Congressman David Price.

B.J. Lawson, an Apex businessman with a medical degree, announced today that he would file for the seat joining Frank Roche, an Apex stock trader, reports Rob Christensen.

Roche had been stumping for the seat for months. But Lawson’s entrance is more of a surprise because he had initially indicated that he would not run again this year.

Lawson was the GOP candidate for the 4th district in 2008, losing to Price by a 63-36 margin. But Lawson generated a lot of interest because of his libertarian views and his fundraising prowess. He defeated Augustus Cho in the GOP primary by a 70-29 percent margin.

The N&O

Interesting. B.J. raised a lot of dough last time from libertarians and liberty caucus Republicans across the country. He’s also more of a “Tea Party” Republican than Roche, who is much more of a traditional conservative.

B.J. Lawson

Two candidates on the Republican side of the aisle have already stepped up to take on Congressman David Price (D-NC-04) in the 2010 general election.  B.J. Lawson who ran a hell of a good campaign against Price last year has decided to make another go at it.  Although Price won handily last year, defeating Lawson 63 – 37, it was no cakewalk for Price.  He had to run ads on television against Lawson and even bring some staff down from D.C. to help out on his campaign.  Unfortunately for Lawson, Price greatly benefited from Obama momentum and an electorate utterly disgusted with the Republican Party.  I think the GOP is recovering from that stigma however.  A recent Rasmussen poll shows that Americans now trust Republicans more than Democrats on six out of ten major issues, including the economy.  That didn’t take long at all.  If that trend continues Lawson might be able to pull off an upset victory next year.  The Fourth did vote for Bush over Kerry in 2004, so Republicans can be competitive in this district.  Additionally, Price was defeated once before by Republican Fred Heineman in the “Republican Revolution” of 1994.  Price had a rematch with Heineman in ‘96 and reclaimed his seat.  The Democrats have since gerrymandered Price’s district, after the 2000 Census, to make it more Democrat leaning.

The second candidate who has declared is a financial executive from Apex, Frank Roche.  According to the News & Observer, Roche hopes “to win over support of more traditional conservatives, who may not be comfortable with some of Lawson’s more Libertarian leanings.”  Yeah, whatever.  It was Lawson’s more libertarian leanings that made him such a better candidate than other Republicans in the past.   Lawson is a strong supporter of civil liberties and is opposed to the Iraq War and it was for those reasons that he was able to pick up the votes of some Democrats disgusted with Price who would have otherwise just sucked it up and voted for him had Lawson been another tired socially conservative neocon that the electorate has vehemently rejected in the last two election cycles.

Election Day isn’t the busiest day of campaign season. It’s the night BEFORE Election Day, when all the signs go out, all the volunteers are organized, all the strategies fall into place… and all hell breaks loose because nothing, NOTHING, is going according to plan.

But I’ve managed to squeeze a few minutes to give you my last endorsements and make predictions. I’ll be busy all day Tuesday, but I’ll be back Wednesday, probably with a massive hangover.

U.S. President:
I predict McCain takes N.C. 50%-48%. I also predict (going WAAAY out on a limb) that he wins PA and the White House. I don’t trust the polls. Not one teeny tiny bit. Of course, I could be way wrong. We’ll see.

U.S. Senate:
Hagan takes it. Those 527 groups just savaged Dole, and that was the difference. That, and Dole running a mediocre campaign. Hagan 51%, Dole 48%.

U.S. House:
Hayes’ seat turns blue; Kissell wins. No other changes. But B.J. Lawson will put a scare into David Price.

Governor and Lt. Gov:
McCrory narrowly wins, 48%-47%-5%. Pittenger wins 52-48. N.C. decides it really IS time for change.

General Assembly:
Don’t have time to go through them all, but perhaps a few upset watches- Duane Cutlip and Bryan Gossage, both R’s, may take down incumbents in Wake County. John Alexander (R) might pull an upset and win a Senate seat in Raleigh. In West N.C., one-term house member Cullie Tarleton (D) might fall as well. Republicans will make gains in the senate, but won’t take it.

Council of State:
Cowell (D) wins the open Treasurer’s seat.  Dem incumbents Marshall (Sect. of State), Cooper (AG), Atkinson (Education), are re-elected. Republican incumbent Steve Troxler (Ag) re-elected. Cherie Berry (R) will lose re-election as Labor Comm. The Auditor race will be very, very, verrrrry close, as Les Merritt has upset the Raleigh apple cart and a lot of people want him gone. I think (and hope) he’ll very narrowly pull through.

Republican B.J. Lawson has passed the $500,000 mark in fund raising for his race against Congressman David Price (D-NC-04).  This is undoubtedly the strongest challenge Price has faced probably since he lost his seat in 1994 before winning it back in 1996.  I have heard chatter here and there from people in the district that Price isn’t the best of listeners when it comes to the wishes of his constituents, but then that is what happens when an elected official gets too cozy in their office.

Lawson has a more libertarian perspective than a conservative one, something I would like to see more of in the GOP.  He seems like a younger version of Ron Paul.  For example, he opposes the Patriot Act, the Real ID, and has called for an immediate withdraw from Iraq.  He has railed against corporate welfare and has hit Price for supporting the Federal bailout as well as the National Bio- & Agro-Defense Facility proposed for Butner, which some feel would be a bio-hazard.  He decries our current health care system, labeling it “corporate care” and advocates more HSAs and affordable insurance through the free market.

On Tuesday, Lawson is the guy that should win, but I have a feeling David Price will be sticking around.  If this were a better year for Republicans I would say that he might have a shot, but I just can’t see Price going down in this election.  I think the race will be closer than in the past and it might give Lawson a boost should be decide to make another go at it in 2010, which could be a completely different political environment.

Democracy Corps is James Carville’s organization. This poll was taken from August 20th through August 26th.

Now you should bear in mind that the samples were very small, less than 100 people in each Congressional district, so there is going to be a larger margin of error than in most polls. However, most of these percentages seem fairly accurate to me. The only two I question is NC-05 and NC-08. I don’t think that Virginia Foxx is in a statistical tie with Roy Carter, though I don’t doubt he isn’t close to her. I also think the gap between Robin Hayes and Larry Kissell is smaller than the eight point spread shown in this poll. Shuler is crushing Mumpower which I have been saying since the birth of this blog would be the case no matter which Republican Heath runs against. Plus, the fact that Mumpower’s race has been akin to a Barnum & Bailey juggling act only makes it more so. I don’t know why NC-12 and NC-13 were not included on this poll, but I think the conventional wisdom is that neither Mel Watt nor Brad Miller have much to worry about this year.

All and all, I don’t see any of the Congressional districts in North Carolina switching parties this year. I think all of the incumbents are going to be retained. If Kissell loses, I’m afraid my friends at BlueNC will become suicidal.

Update: I mistakenly had the Fifth District Democratic candidate listed as Roy Cooper instead of Roy Carter. That has been corrected.

Residents of N.C.’s 4th Congressional District got a wonderful little gift in the mail the other day- a beautiful glossy campaign ad from quasi-socialist congressman David Price paid for at taxpayer expense.

It’s one of those annoying “Keeping in Touch” mailers that congressmen use to exalt themselves while ostensibly keeping in touch with the little guy, like you and me. These mailers, being official government business, are paid for with taxpayer dollars. Nice to see Congressional franking privileges being put to such good use.

Anyways, what really creams my wheats about this mailing is a section he called “Drilling Down the Rhetoric”, wherein he calls expanded drilling a “deeply flawed” idea. He opposes offshore Atlantic drilling because “it would be a dangerous gamble with our state’s important tourism and aquatic resources”. No, Congressman, a dangerous gamble is relying on oil from countries who hate us and who are in a militarily unstable part of the world. And I suggest you ask Brazil and Norway, two countries who have had great success with offshore drilling, how much of a detriment it is to their aquatic and tourism resources.

Price goes on to say that according to the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook, 2007, Atlantic and Pacific drilling “would have no significant impact on production or prices before 2030″. Well, I may not be an energy expert, but I call “BS” on Price and that study. Expanding the supply during a period of heavy demand will almost certainly bring prices down, and it won’t take 23 years to build a damn oil platform or to see price reductions.

Price concludes by demanding that those big mean evil oil companies drill in land that has already been set aside for them. Well that would be swell, except for that we don’t know if there’s any oil in them thar hills. We DO know, however, that there’s a veritable ocean of oil in ANWR, but boobs like Price won’t let drillers near it because we might hurt a caribou.

Price is a old hack who’s been in Congress for over 20 years- which is 20 years too long. I hope my fellow 4th District residents take a good look at this clown and at his opponent, B.J. Lawson, and decide that it’s time for a change.

Cho, former chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, sought to portray himself as a mainstream conservative and Lawson as a libertarian who follows the same creed as GOP presidential candidate and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas.

“It’s going to take a true Republican to beat David Price, not a libertarian quasi-Republican,” Cho said. “I call him ‘Ron Paul Jr.’ because that’s what he is.”

Lawson, a businessman who founded and later sold a medical software company, didn’t exactly run away from the characterization. He said Cho has no real strategy for defeating Price, and argued the GOP has to change its approach to appeal to middle-of-road voters.

“My strategy is all about building bridges,” Lawson said. “We need to stop dividing the country against itself.”

The issues dividing the two candidates were plain, most often when they addressed foreign policy.

Lawson made it clear he’s no supporter of the Bush administration’s handling of the Iraq war, or of its approach to post-9/11 domestic security.

Both, he said, posit a “state of war that has no criteria for success and frankly will never end.”

Americans, he added, “tired of the same old message,” “tired of living in fear” and believe they don’t “have to sacrifice liberty and freedom,” he said. Moreover, “the idea that we can police the world for Germany and South Korea at no cost to them and all the cost to us [is], frankly, unsustainable.”

The Herald Sun

I agree with Lawson. We are slowly giving up our freedoms in the name of supposed security. How much more will continue to erode under the guise of keeping us safe? He is also correct about the U.S. being the world police. We cannot financially afford to continue bearing the burden of the Monroe Doctrine. It’s time we started spending more of our time and resources on our own people instead of the rest of the world who quite frankly isn’t very grateful for it.

DURHAM — Congressional hopefuls B.J. Lawson of Cary and Augustus Cho of Chapel Hill will debate at Wednesday’s All Interested Republicans meeting at the Hope Valley Country Club.

The meeting begins with lunch at 11:30 a.m. Reservations are required. Call (919) 519-0761 to reserve a place.

Lawson and Cho hope to challenge for the Fourth District seat held by Democrat David Price of Chapel Hill.

The Herald Sun