Carolina Politics Online

U.S. Senate- Republican Primary
Richard Burr (i)- 55%
Brad Jones- 10%
Eddie Burks- 3%
Undecided- 31%
(moe-3.9%; PPP, 646 Republican voters, Feb. 12 to 15)

U.S. Senate- Democrat Primary
Elaine Marshall- 29%
Cal Cunningham- 12%
Ken Lewis- 5%
Marcus Williams- 2%
Undecided- 51%
(moe-4.9%; PPP, 400 Democrats, Feb. 12-15)

Elaine Marshall- 14%
Cal Cunningham- 4%
Ken Lewis- 5%
Undecided- 77%
(moe-5%; Civitas, 367 Democrats, Feb. 15-18)

h/t- The N&O

Cal Cunningham, North Carolina candidate for the U.S. Senate, has mirrored the calls of some of his Democratic colleagues around the country, calling for an end to the use of the filibuster in the Senate.  Many members of the Democratic Senatorial caucus have been getting frustrated with the increased use of the filibuster by the Republicans to stop legislation from moving forward and allowing it to die in the Senate.

The filibuster is an interesting piece of American history.  It is not a part of the Constitution or even the original Congressional rules when they were first established, but it has been around off and on since 1837 when the first one took place.  At times during Senate history there was no cloture procedure to end a filibuster.  At other times it’s required a 2/3 vote of Congress.  Today and most recently it is 60.  It also used to be far more brutal for the filibustering party.  Just a few decades ago they would stand up there and talk for the entire duration of the filibuster, not just symbolically stop the legislation like today.  These guys have it easy now.  They just say they are filibustering and that’s all there is to it.  In the good ole days, the longest traditional filibuster that ever took place was done so by our own former Senator in South Carolina, the late Strom Thurmond who filibustered the 1957 Civil Rights Act for 24 hours and 18 minutes.

The call to bring about an end to its use is stemming from how frequently it has been put into effect since just the turn of the century.  Most recently, it is the left that feels it is being abused too much by the GOP, although the Democrats were just as bad about it when the Republicans had the majority.  I can’t say that I agree with Cunningham that we should do away with it altogether.  I think it should remain a rule to protect the governing minority, but the rules surrounding its use could probably use some overhaul.  Personally, I think they should require a filibuster to be a true filibuster like back in Thurmond’s days.  Make them stand up there and speak for hours, having to piss in a bucket (yes, that actually happened), until eventually one side gives.  That would limit the use of the tactic to only when there is a major struggle going on in the Senate.

The majority flips back and forth between the parties every few election cycles. If the filibuster were to be done away with and Cunningham ends up getting elected to the Senate this year he may wish he had the ability to use it again down the road when the Republicans are in charge and pushing and agenda he doesn’t particularly care for.  So as the saying goes, be careful what you wish for.

Join us for a hometown campaign jump start for

Cal Cunningham
Candidate for U.S. Senate

Barbecue Dinner

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

6:30 p.m. – 8:30 p.m.

Richard Childress Racing Auditorium
425 Industrial Drive
Welcome, NC

Individual Tickets
$25

TO RSVP, please visit www.calfornc.com/events/jumpstart.

To sponsor the event or for more information, please contact Crystal Perkins, 336-248-2010 or crystal@calfornc.com.

Senator Richard Burr (R) so far this election season has been leading all of his potential Democrat opponents by a decent amount, but he has been doing so usually only polling in the low 40s.  His numbers have improved a bit.  According to a new Rasmussen Report, Burr is leading Education Secretary Elaine Marshall 47% to 37% and has a very handy lead over Cal Cunningham 50% to 34%.  Any polling under 50%, however, is still a sign of vulnerability.

In another poll from Public Policy Polling, both Senators Richard Burr and Kay Hagan are showing poor approval ratings from the voters of North Carolina.  Burr’s numbers shows a paltry 35% approving of his job in Congress with Hagan having relatively the same lack of popularity at 36%.  Hagan, of course, has another five years before she needs to worry about being reelected; Burr has only 11 months.

Despite Burr’s low approval rating, as every other poll that has been commissioned, he still leads all of his potential Democrat opponents, although the gaps have narrowed.  Burr leads Elaine Marshall by five points, Kenneth Lewis by six, and Cal Cunningham by nine.  This shows that either folks still aren’t sold on their selection of replacements to Burr, of which there is plenty of time to change, or that they feel even less confident in putting a Democrat in his place given the unpopularity of the party in D.C. right now.

It seems people feel like they have a choice between a giant douche or a turd sandwich.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall has picked up the endorsement of two national women’s organization’s in her bid to win the May Democratic Senate primary.

She has been endorsed by the National Organization for Women and the Women’s Campaign Forum, Rob Christensen reports.

The group’s national affiliate, the National Women’s Political Caucus, is also considering backing Marshall, according to the Marshall campaign. The Marshall campaign is hoping her early endorsements from women’s groups will blunt the impact of the backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee of one of her opponents, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Also in the race is Chapel Hill attorney Kenneth Lewis.

The N&O

So why do I feel sorry for her? Imagine you’ve been a statewide elected official since 1996 and the first woman elected statewide in N.C. history. You beat Richard Petty (Richard Petty!) to win that race. You’ve been re-elected fairly easily ever since. You’ve built up a network of contacts and support across N.C. It’s YOUR turn, dammit! And now you jump into a U.S. Senate race that your party thinks they can win with the right candidate.

Except your party doesn’t think you’re that candidate. Your party (the D.C. version, anyways) is creaming their jeans over some guy named Cal Cunningham who was an unknown state senator for about 6 minutes back several years ago.

Damn, that sucks.

Cal Cunningham has reversed course from a month ago and has now decided that he is jumping into next year’s U.S. Senate race in North Carolina.  Cunningham is a Democrat who will be vying for his party’s nomination to take on incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr.

UPDATE: Etheridge is out. [N&O] With no more top candidates to recruit, Dems turn to this woman.

National Democrats are apparently stepping up their efforts to try and recruit Congressman Bob Etheridge (D-NC-02) to run against Senator Richard Burr in next year’s election.  They evidently think that Etheridge could bring a strong challenge to Burr.  While I realize Burr isn’t all that popular or well known around the state, I think they’re wrong.

Bob Etheridge has this image that he is some middle of the road moderate, but that couldn’t be further from the truth.  Look at his voting record:

• Voted for Wall Street Bailout?  Check!
• Voted for the Porkulus bill?  Check!
• Voted for Crap and Tax?  Check!
• Voted for the largest budget deficit in American history?  Check!
• Voted for the health care bill that will put people in jail for not buying insurance?  Check!

Bob Etheridge has more in common with far left radicals than he does with the people of North Carolina and I think the Burr campaign will take Etheridge’s record and absolutely destroy him.  That’s my opinion.

In related news to this race, former state legislator Cal Cunningham has decided to bow out and not run.  He was being embraced by the left wing extremists at BlueNC.

Additionally, Republican Dan Mansell of Selma has decided to make another run for the Second Congressional District seat.  I think if Mansell is well funded he can make a similar case and mount a competitive challenge to Etheridge, although it will be more difficult for him to defeat Etheridge than Etheridge to defeat Burr.  Of course, if Etheridge does run against Burr and NC-02 is an open seat then Mansell has an excellent chance of winning because this seat leans slightly Republican according to the Cook Political Index.

Well, this is quite the political oddity.  According to Public Policy Polling, Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) has experienced a drop in his already dangerously low approval rating for an incumbent, but his lead among his potential opponents has actually increased.  Yeah, I can’t wrap my brain around that one either.  Perhaps it’s a sign of some general frustration North Carolinians might have with the Democrats running the state and the country.

General Election Matchups
Burr 46 — Cunningham 27 — Und 27
Burr 44 — Etheridge 33 — Und 23
Burr 45 — Foy 29 — Und 26
Burr 44 — Lewis 30 — Und 26
Burr 44 — Marshall 32 — Und 24
Burr 43 — Wicker 30 — Und 26

Burr 45 — Generic D 34 — Und 22

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Burr still under 50, but holding double digit leads against his Democrat opponents.

That’s the analysis of the political pollster Public Policy Polling.  It’s not that Richard Burr has done a bad job for the folks in North Carolina.  It’s not that they’re all that unhappy with him.  The problem is he just hasn’t done anything significant enough to get leave his personal imprint on and get recognition from.  Basically, nobody knows who he is or not enough about him to form an opinion after five years in the U.S. Senate.

Burr’s approval rating is only 38%, which would usually be considered abysmal for an incumbent. Interestingly, his disapproval is only 32%, with a whopping 29% undecided.

It’s not that he’s unpopular — it’s that in the time since he was first elected in 2004, he has thus far failed to actually make an impression on the voters.

The pollster’s analysis suggests that the outlook for this race could depend on the national climate: “Burr’s standing has improved a little bit as the climate has gotten worse for Democrats nationally but if Barack Obama’s approval starts heading back in the right direction this race has the potential to be a toss up.”

TPM

Which is what I’ve said as well.  If next year is good for Republicans, Burr is safe.  If not, he could be taken down like Dole was last year.

The good news for Burr is that he is still beating all potential Democrats by a decent margin.  The bad news is he is still way under 50% and there are a lot of undecideds, who historically will break for the challenger.

A new Public Policy Polling is out today showing Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) leading all of his potential Democrat challengers, but he is still well under 50%.  Burr gets 43% of the vote against all match ups.  The strongest competitor is Secretary of State Elaine Marshall who trails him with 31%.  State Senator Cal Cunningham comes in with 28% and both Kenneth Lewis and Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy receive 27% when matched up against Burr.

According to a July 12th poll taken by Public Policy Polling, Senator Richard Burr had better get his game on if he wants to see another term in the U.S. Senate.  While Burr is ahead of his potential Democrat challengers, his approval rating is hovering in the lower forties to mid thirties and he doesn’t poll any higher than 42% of the vote at this point in time.

Burr currently has an approval rating of 36% with 29% of state voters holding an unfavorable view of him.  A 36% approval rating for an incumbent is pretty piss poor, but Burr’s one saving grace is that the disapproval is even lower meaning that about a third of North Carolina voters aren’t sure what they think of him.  That still isn’t good, but it would be a lot more damning if his disapproval was in the fifties or sixties.

Against Democrat Cal Cunningham Burr wins 40% to 31% and against Kenneth Lewis he wins 42% to 31%.  Both of these fairly unknown candidates hold Burr well under the 50% mark which is considered safe territory for an incumbent politician.

There are so many factors going on right now that it’s really impossible to make any kind of prediction as to what Burr could face in next year’s election.  Governor Beverly Perdue (D) has an abysmal approval rating of 25% just after six months in office.  Former Governor Mike Easley (D) and his wife are under several corruption related investigations.  The Democrat State Legislature in North Carolina is ready to pass an astronomical tax increase.  Furthermore, throw in the quagmire going on at the Federal level with Cap and Tax, the failing stimulus legislation, the growing opposition to ObamaCare, and President Obama’s sinking popularity and Burr could end up sailing to reelection despite these numbers.

On the other hand, if the economy does pick up and employment begins a steady increase between now and November of next year and Obama begins to rebound back to higher approval ratings Burr could just as easily be retired.  I think Burr’s reelection will be more about the Democrats at both the state and Federal level than it will be about Richard Burr.