Feb 25 2010
U.S. Senate- Republican Primary
Richard Burr (i)- 55%
Brad Jones- 10%
Eddie Burks- 3%
Undecided- 31%
(moe-3.9%; PPP, 646 Republican voters, Feb. 12 to 15)
U.S. Senate- Democrat Primary
Elaine Marshall- 29%
Cal Cunningham- 12%
Ken Lewis- 5%
Marcus Williams- 2%
Undecided- 51%
(moe-4.9%; PPP, 400 Democrats, Feb. 12-15)
Elaine Marshall- 14%
Cal Cunningham- 4%
Ken Lewis- 5%
Undecided- 77%
(moe-5%; Civitas, 367 Democrats, Feb. 15-18)
h/t- The N&O
Jan 29 2010
Senator Richard Burr (R) so far this election season has been leading all of his potential Democrat opponents by a decent amount, but he has been doing so usually only polling in the low 40s. His numbers have improved a bit. According to a new Rasmussen Report, Burr is leading Education Secretary Elaine Marshall 47% to 37% and has a very handy lead over Cal Cunningham 50% to 34%. Any polling under 50%, however, is still a sign of vulnerability.
Dec 21 2009
In another poll from Public Policy Polling, both Senators Richard Burr and Kay Hagan are showing poor approval ratings from the voters of North Carolina. Burr’s numbers shows a paltry 35% approving of his job in Congress with Hagan having relatively the same lack of popularity at 36%. Hagan, of course, has another five years before she needs to worry about being reelected; Burr has only 11 months.
Despite Burr’s low approval rating, as every other poll that has been commissioned, he still leads all of his potential Democrat opponents, although the gaps have narrowed. Burr leads Elaine Marshall by five points, Kenneth Lewis by six, and Cal Cunningham by nine. This shows that either folks still aren’t sold on their selection of replacements to Burr, of which there is plenty of time to change, or that they feel even less confident in putting a Democrat in his place given the unpopularity of the party in D.C. right now.
It seems people feel like they have a choice between a giant douche or a turd sandwich.
Dec 15 2009
Secretary of State Elaine Marshall has picked up the endorsement of two national women’s organization’s in her bid to win the May Democratic Senate primary.
She has been endorsed by the National Organization for Women and the Women’s Campaign Forum, Rob Christensen reports.
The group’s national affiliate, the National Women’s Political Caucus, is also considering backing Marshall, according to the Marshall campaign. The Marshall campaign is hoping her early endorsements from women’s groups will blunt the impact of the backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee of one of her opponents, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Also in the race is Chapel Hill attorney Kenneth Lewis.
So why do I feel sorry for her? Imagine you’ve been a statewide elected official since 1996 and the first woman elected statewide in N.C. history. You beat Richard Petty (Richard Petty!) to win that race. You’ve been re-elected fairly easily ever since. You’ve built up a network of contacts and support across N.C. It’s YOUR turn, dammit! And now you jump into a U.S. Senate race that your party thinks they can win with the right candidate.
Except your party doesn’t think you’re that candidate. Your party (the D.C. version, anyways) is creaming their jeans over some guy named Cal Cunningham who was an unknown state senator for about 6 minutes back several years ago.
Damn, that sucks.
Oct 08 2009
Well, this is quite the political oddity. According to Public Policy Polling, Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) has experienced a drop in his already dangerously low approval rating for an incumbent, but his lead among his potential opponents has actually increased. Yeah, I can’t wrap my brain around that one either. Perhaps it’s a sign of some general frustration North Carolinians might have with the Democrats running the state and the country.
General Election Matchups
Burr 46 — Cunningham 27 — Und 27
Burr 44 — Etheridge 33 — Und 23
Burr 45 — Foy 29 — Und 26
Burr 44 — Lewis 30 — Und 26
Burr 44 — Marshall 32 — Und 24
Burr 43 — Wicker 30 — Und 26
Burr 45 — Generic D 34 — Und 22
Sep 20 2009
The latest Rasmussen poll shows Burr still under 50, but holding double digit leads against his Democrat opponents.
| Richard Burr 48% | Elaine Marshall 38% |
| Richard Burr 48% | Kenneth Lewis 32% |
| Richard Burr 48% | Bob Etheridge 34% |
Sep 13 2009
That’s the analysis of the political pollster Public Policy Polling. It’s not that Richard Burr has done a bad job for the folks in North Carolina. It’s not that they’re all that unhappy with him. The problem is he just hasn’t done anything significant enough to get leave his personal imprint on and get recognition from. Basically, nobody knows who he is or not enough about him to form an opinion after five years in the U.S. Senate.
Burr’s approval rating is only 38%, which would usually be considered abysmal for an incumbent. Interestingly, his disapproval is only 32%, with a whopping 29% undecided.
It’s not that he’s unpopular — it’s that in the time since he was first elected in 2004, he has thus far failed to actually make an impression on the voters.
The pollster’s analysis suggests that the outlook for this race could depend on the national climate: “Burr’s standing has improved a little bit as the climate has gotten worse for Democrats nationally but if Barack Obama’s approval starts heading back in the right direction this race has the potential to be a toss up.”
Which is what I’ve said as well. If next year is good for Republicans, Burr is safe. If not, he could be taken down like Dole was last year.
The good news for Burr is that he is still beating all potential Democrats by a decent margin. The bad news is he is still way under 50% and there are a lot of undecideds, who historically will break for the challenger.
| Burr vs. Bob Etheridge | 41-34 |
| Burr vs. Elaine Marshall | 42-31 |
| Burr vs. Dennis Wicker | 42-31 |
| Burr vs. Cal Cunningham | 42-30 |
| Burr vs. Kevin Foy | 43-29 |
| Burr vs. Kenneth Lewis | 43-27 |
| Burr vs. Generic Democrat | 45-38 |
Sep 09 2009
About a month ago there was speculation that North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall was considering a run for the U.S. Senate against Richard Burr next year. Those suspicions were confirmed today when she filed papers for the race. Conventional wisdom would dictate that Marshall should be the toughest candidate to face Burr of all those who might run, save Bob Etheridge perhaps, however a poll done by Public Policy Polling, a Democrat pollster didn’t show her numbers being much different from the other lesser known candidates.
Aug 14 2009
A new Public Policy Polling is out today showing Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) leading all of his potential Democrat challengers, but he is still well under 50%. Burr gets 43% of the vote against all match ups. The strongest competitor is Secretary of State Elaine Marshall who trails him with 31%. State Senator Cal Cunningham comes in with 28% and both Kenneth Lewis and Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy receive 27% when matched up against Burr.
Jul 31 2009
North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is “pretty seriously leaning towards” running against Republican Sen. Richard M. Burr in 2010, campaign strategist Thomas Mills tell CQ Politics.
“She’s gotten very strong feedback both in state and in Washington,” said Mills.
If you paid attention to President Obama’s health care forum in Raleigh, N.C. on Wednesday, you would have noticed her there, as well.
As the number of Democratic prospects continue to dwindle, Marshall is looking like a lead contender to take on Burr, whose shaky standing at home has Democratic party leaders drooling.
Marshall would probably be the only really competitive opponent Burr could get next year. The Democrats have not been able to produce anything more than third tier challengers. Marshall would make it more exciting, but I still think Burr is going to have the upper hand. Everything right now is pointing to a good year for the GOP in 2010, but that could change in a minute.
Mar 21 2009
U.S. Sen. Richard Burr leads over a hypothetical challenger.
In a poll by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, the Winston-Salem Democrat received 43 percent, while Secretary of State Elaine Marshall received 35 percent. Twenty-two percent were undecided.
Burr is running for re-election in 2010. No Democrat has officially challenged him, although Attorney General Roy Cooper is widely expected to run. Marshall ran unsuccessfully in the Democratic Senate primary in 2002.
Paired against a generic Democratic opponent in the same poll, Burr did roughly the same, garnering 42 percent to 38 percent who would back the Democrat.
“This poll is just more confirmation of what we’ve found every time we’ve looked at Richard Burr,” said PPP president Dean Debnam, calling him “very vulnerable” next year.
The automated survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted March 12-15. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percent.
Nov 12 2008
Well, it’s a been a week now. I think I’ve recovered enough to post this election recap. Y’all already know the winners, but let’s take a look at the numbers and at some downballot races, shall we?
First of all, WRAL.com has a really cool interactive map you can use to see how several candidates did in each of N.C.’s 100 counties. Check it out.
Now, on to the numbers.
Nov 05 2008
So Election 2008 is now over and your friendly admin of CPO can slack off for a little while now. We saw some big changes last night around the country and also right here in the Carolinas.
North Carolina has turned blue. By a fraction of a hair it went to Obama last night. He earned it. His campaign had the ground game to make it happen.
Kay Hagan predictably ousted Elizabeth Dole by a handy margin. Dole got slaughtered with outside 527 ads and I think the “Godless” ad she ran against Hagan sealed her fate.
One Congressional seat changed hands and that was the 8th Congressional District held by Republican Robin Hayes. This was expected to happen, but I was hoping Hayes would pull it out only because I think Larry Kissell is the wrong man for that seat. His energy policies are an infantile fantasy that will hurt his constituents which are mostly low income. Virginia Foxx, Heath Shuler, and Patrick McHenry easily won reelection.
In statewide races, Bev Perdue (D) narrowly defeated Pat McCrory (R) for the gubernatorial race. This made me very angry. It could not have been more obvious who the candidate of change was in this race. Bev Perdue will continue the same status quo culture of corruption that has plagued Raleigh for years. I think straight party voting caused this victory. Likewise, State Senator Walter Dalton (D) defeated State Senator Robert Pittenger (R) in the Lieutenant Governor’s race by a slightly larger margin.
Democrat Beth Wood defeated Republican incumbent Les Merritt in the Auditor’s race which is another blow to the state. Merritt was the only firewall defending the people from the corruption in the state legislature and now that is gone. Roy Cooper (D), Steve Troxler (R), Cherie Berry (R), Elaine Marshall (D), and June Atkinson (D) all got reelected to their posts. State Senator Janet Cowell (D) is now the new State Treasurer and Democrat Wayne Goodwin won the Insurance Commissioner’s race.
The Republican Party in North Carolina is extremely incompetent.
In the State Legislature Debbie Ann Clary won the race in Senate District 46 flipping that from Democrat to Republican. In State House District 86 Republican Hugh Blackwell defeated Democratic incumbent Walter Church and in State House District 90 Republican Sarah Stevens ousted incumbent Democrat Jim Harrell.
South Carolina gave our electoral votes to John McCain last night and we were the only Atlantic coast state to do so. Lindsey Graham easily won reelection to the U.S. Senate. All six Congressmen won reelections to their seats as well.
In the state legislature there weren’t many changes. Republican Kris Crawford did win reelection in House District 63. I said last night that he lost. Anton Gunn picked up House District 79 for the Democrats. The District 115 race between Republican incumbent Wallace Scarborough and Democrat Anne Peterson Hutto is too close to call at this time, althought Scarborough has claimed victory.
The ballot amendment to change the Constitution to allow the state legislature to set the age of consent passed.
