North Carolina Democrat Elaine Marshall released the results of a new internal poll that found the four-term secretary of state leading incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr by 2 points. That’s well within the margin of error, but more to the point was that Burr was held to 35 percent and that nearly a quarter of voters had yet to make up their minds.

The poll was conducted by Lake Research Partners, a firm that conducts polling for Democratic candidates, from July 15-19 among 600 likely voters with a 4-point margin of error. It found Burr to not only have a low job approval rating, but also found a plurality of voters view him unfavorably.

Real Clear Politics

I’ve said many times that Burr is not a lock for reelection, but I’m not buying this.  For one, it’s an internal poll and you simply can’t trust those.  Second, it’s an outlier.  Other polls on this race don’t come close to reflecting the same results.  If we see the same results from a credible pollster like Gallup, SUSA, Rasmussen, etc. then I’ll believe it.

Elaine Marshall can absolutely win this race, though.  I don’t think she will, but she could.  Burr’s approval rating has been well below 50 ever since the election year started.  He is going to be saved by the national mood of the electorate who right now hates the Democratic Party.  If the 2010 environment was like ‘06 or ‘08 Burr would be a dead man walking right now.

Elaine Marshall won the Democratic nomination for the U.S.Senate race in North Carolina. She will now face incumbent Republican Richard Burr and Libertarian Michael Beitler.  I rank this race as leaning Republican.

State Representative Nikki Haley handily defeated Congressman Gresham Barrett in the Republican gubernatorial run off for South Carolina.  Haley will now face Democratic State Senator Vincent Sheheen in the fall to determine who will succeed Governor Mark Sanford.  I rank this race as also leaning Republican.  Ken Ard will be Haley’s Lt Governor running mate.

In North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District Republican run off Harold Johnson easily bested Tim D’Annunzio as expected.  D’Annunzio will now have all the time he needs to begin excavating the State of Arizona for the lost Ark of the Convenant.  Johnson will face incumbent Democratic Congressman Larry Kissell and Libertarian Thomas Hill in November.  I rank this race as leaning Democratic.

In North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District Bill Randall defeated Bernie Reeves.  Democrat Brad Miller is the incumbent in this gerrymandered district which covers a small portion of the Triangle and then shoots up to the Virginia border.  This is a D+5 district, so it’s not overwhelmingly Democratic, though I lean this race towards Miller.  Given the political environment this year, however, we could see Randall pull off an upset in November.

In South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District State Representative Tim Scott defeated Paul Thurmond by a huge margin in the Republican run off.  Although Congressman Henry Brown almost lost this seat in 2008, it is still pretty reliably Republican.  Scott is likely to win the November election.

State Representative Jeff Duncan defeated political newcomer Richard Cash by only a three point margin in the Republican run off for South Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District.  This is a solidly Republican seat and we are sure to see Duncan succeed Gresham Barrett in January.

Congressman Bob Inglis became another incumbent to lose reelection in his party’s primary in what’s becoming a long line of incumbent bloodletting all across the country.  Trey Gowdy laid the smackdown on him pretty hard last night.  Like the 3rd, the 4th is solidly Republican and Gowdy will be the next Congressman come January.

Alan Wilson won the Republican run off for South Carolina’s Attorney General race.  The odds favor him to win the general election in November.  Mick Zais won the State Education Superintendent Republican run off and he will face Democrat Frank Holleman in the general.  I rank this race as a toss up.  This is the one statewide seat that the Democrats traditionally seem to be able to capture in this state, probably because Democrats are generally trusted on education issues better than the GOP.  Although, with the political environment favoring the GOP this year more so than normal, Zais could emerge victorious.

In South Carolina’s State House run offs, Doug Brannon ousted one term State Representative Joey Millwood in the 38th House District.  This was an unfortunate result as Brannon supports the failed status quo of public education in this state, where as Millwood was a school choice supporter.  On the other hand, Andy Patrick absolutely pummeled State Representative Richard Chalk in the 123rd so that balances out the Millwood loss.  Democrat Boyd Brown just barely kept his seat in District 41 and Republican Marion Frye hung on to his seat in District 39.

And since I live in York County I always like to weigh on our local races.  Both County Council incumbents in the Republican run off lost their seats.  Eric Winstead defeated Councilman Joe Cox in District 3 and Britt Blackwell beat Buddy Motz in District 6.  David Bowman secured the nomination in District 1, the seat currently held by sleaze bag Paul Lindemann who only managed to get a paltry 12% in the primary election two weeks ago.

8:57pm

8:55pm

8:51pm
Not looking good for Kyle Boyd. :sigh:


8:47pm
South Carolina State Representative Richard Chalk has lost reelection in the 123rd House District.


8:45pm
Tim Scott has won the Republican run off for South Carolina’s First Congressional District.


8:45pm
Alan Wilson has won the Republican Attorney General run off.


8:43pm
York County Councilmen Joe Cox and Buddy Motz have both lost their run off elections.


8:39pm
Congressman Bob Inglis has lost reelection. Oh happy day!


8:37pm

8:35pm
Elaine Marshall has won the Democratic nomination for North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.


8:28pm
Nikki Haley has won the Republican run off for governor!


8:21pm

8:13pm

8:03pm

7:56pm

7:53pm

7:48pm

The polls have closed in South Carolina. They will close in North Carolina at 7:30. I will be updating the results as they come in.

U.S. Senate- Democrat
That Old Lady vs. Whats-his-Face

Yes, it’s the epic battle of the century- some old lady versus some guy from somewhere who used to be a state senator at some point. This thing is so intense I’ll be happy when it’s over so I can catch my breath.

OK, end sarcasm. If I wasn’t a political nerd, I would have no idea there was even an election tomorrow. This race has been almost non-existent. It’s a statewide primary for a U.S. Senate seat that’s actually winnable, and no one seems to give two rat turds about it. I haven’t even seen a poll on this race, have you?

So who will win? Oh… I’ll go with the Old Lady. She’s run statewide since 1996 and has an entrenched base of support as a result. Run-offs are all about turnout, and I think she’s got the manpower to get her supporters out there. Cunningham is too much of an unknown without a lot of statewide experience. Old Lady- 56%, Whats-his-Face- 44%

Who should win? I could care less.

U.S. House 13th District- Republican
Bill Randall vs. Bernie Reeves

This race has gotten just as nasty and low as the more publicized 8th District run-off. Reeves accused Randall of using viagra on his military record. Randall insinuated that maybe there’s “collusion” between the government and BP. Reeves has more money and establishment support. Randall is the Tea Party candidate and I’ve seen a lot of his supporters out there working for him. Either one faces a huge, huge hurdle against Brad Miller this fall, but I think either one can beat Miller with a good mixture of luck and skill.

Who will win? I’ll take the Navy guy with infantry support. In a turnout game, I’d rather have the committed volunteers that Randall has over Reeves’ ability to shit money. In the first election, a lot of that local support was split between Randall and 3rd place finisher Dan Huffman. I think Randall picks up most of Huffman’s support and wins. Randall- 54%, Reeves-46%.

Who should win? Really, I kinda liked Huffman. Oh well. Of the two of them, I like Randall more because, a) he answers our questionnaires; b) he’s a good guy; and c) he actually shows up to campaign instead of trying to buy votes. I’ve heard bad things about how Reeves acts, and he’s slung mud at Randall. So we here at CPO like Bill and wish him luck tomorrow.

U.S. House 13th District- Republican
Tim D’Annunzio vs. Harold Johnson

Ho boy…   this one sure has been interesting, hasn’t it? I suppose there isn’t much more to say that hasn’t already been said in court documents and on previous posts here on CPO, so let’s get on with the predictions.

Who will win: Johnson. Sorry Timmy D., but money can’t buy everything. I do think Timmy D’s supporters, who are rabidly loyal, will make this interesting though. Johnson 60%. D’Annunzio 40%.

Who Should Win: D’Annunzio. Yup. You read that right. I think D’Annunzio shuld win. Why? Well… he really wants it. That counts for something. And I think it would be great to throw a firecracker right at Tom Fetzer’s and the RNC’s faces. Hey knuckleheads… you wanna  stick your nose in someone else’s primary, don’t be surprised if you come back with no more nose. I know all the problems with D’Annunzio, but I’ll take him over the GOP establishment that has stepped in their own shit for two years in regards to this race. They deserve to have D’Annunzio foisted upon them as punishment.

But Celtic, then Larry Kissell will win. Yeah, he probably will. But what happens if Johnson wins the primary? I think Johnson will beat Kissell. And no, I’m actually not happy about that. Johnson is a RINO. All he’ll be is a GOP “yes” man for 4-6 years. And when he decides to step down, the GOP establishment will pick another RINO, maybe L’il Prince Chucklehead, to replace him. But if Kissell stays in another term, maybe there’s a chance to get a real conservative in there in 2012.

And Johnson is a carpetbagger. This is an unforgivable sin for me. I lived in N.Y. when that evil bitch moved there in 2000 just to run for the U.S. Senate. I thought it was disgusting then, and I think it’s disgusting now. How is what Harold Johnson did any different? He lived in Iredell County for 30 damn years, but moved to Caburrus just to run for office? Homey don’t play that game, Big Guy.

So there’s my picks. I’ll try to provide real-time updates for you tomorrow night, along with Bane’s S.C. analysis.

U.S Senate (Republican)- Richard (20% of my own party told me to take a hike) Burr sent a victory telegram from a fundraiser in Washington, DC, showing everyone just what motivated that 20% to vote the way it did. Even in bad Democrat years, Democrats can pick off vulnerable, flawed incumbents. Tim Johnson beat Larry Pressler in S.D. in 1996. Mark Pryor beat Tim Hutchinson in Arkansas in 2002. Can Elaine or Cal beat Burr this year?

U.S. Senate (Democrat)- Wow. That was a thrill-a-minute primary, wasn’t it? Now politics’ answer to sleeping pills enters round two, with two people no one in their own party even cares about trying to lure sleepwalkers to the voting booth for the run-off. This almost makes me miss John Edwards- at least news stories about him are interesting.

Anyways, looks like Cal What’s-his-name is full steam ahead for a run-off with… That Old Chick, or whatever her name is. He seems pretty into it… to bad no one else is. Will there be behind-the-scenes pressure forcing him out for party unity? Probably. Will it work? Doubt it. As long as the only person he attacks is Burr, he’ll stay in.

U.S. House- There are only two outstanding races right now; Bill Randall and Bernie Reeves in the 13th, and Timmy D. and The Big Guy in the 8th. A third, Jeff Miller and Dan Eichenbaum in the 11th, may or may not be over; a recount may be imminent.

Republicans believe they have a shot at four Democrat seats in November- Shuler’s 11th, Kissell’s 8th, and, if the conditions are right, McIntyre’s 7th and Etheridge’s 2nd. Shuler only got 65% in his own primary, so he may have problems coming at him from both sides in November.

Etheridge is a socialist masquerading as a moderate in a conservative district (N.C. 2). Renee Ellmers, a nurse, will be his opponent. Every year there’s at least one under-the-radar race where a long-term incumbent gets beat down by an unheralded no one, followed by the national media echo chamber braying about how “no one saw it coming”. Bull. They’re easy to see coming- a good challenger runs a competent campaign in a winnable district against a long-term incumbent seen as “out-of-touch” and incompatible with the district’s overall philosophy. My early nomination for this year’s eventual “no one saw it coming” race? N.C. 2. A second nomination? N.C. 4. Don’t laugh- B.J. Lawson is a great candidate for that district and Price is an old buffoon.

I was surprised and disappointed to see Patrick McHenry easily handle his two opponents, including our friend Scott Keadle. McHenry may be a douche, but he knows how to win elections. If he managed to hold on in this anti-incumbent year against two millionaires dropping coin on him, he’s probably there until he gets caught in bed with a barn animal.

N.C. House and Senate- Kathy Harrington (R) will succeed David Hoyle (D) after winning her primary. Yes, there is a general election; no, it doesn’t matter… unless she’s caught in a 3-way with McHenry and his barn animal of choice.

In Wilmington, Thom Goolsby beat Michael Lee for the GOP nod and will face UNCW Chancellor Jim Luetze (D) in the 9th Senate District. Incumbent Democrat Julia Boseman stepped down to run for district court… and lost on Tuesday. Ooops.

In Wake County, Tom Murry won his primary by 200 votes over Todd Batchelor. Murry has a great shot at beating appointed Dem Chris Heagarty in one of N.C.’s most contested house seats. Also in Wake, our own Paul Terrell won and will face appointed Rosa Gill, who in the past few years has done her part to ensure that fewer black kids graduate high school in Wake County (she used to be on the school board).

In Mecklenburg, we can all celebrate as our long, statewide nightmare comes to an end- the Nick Mackey reign has ended. And to prove that when it rains, it pours, the state bar suspended Mackey’s law license a day before he got his ass kicked in the primary. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

Smoking ban advocate an uber-RINO Jeff Barnhart survived a GOP primary in Caburrus County. I strongly regret not publicizing that race more, but I just didn’t have the time.

Along with Nick Mackey, four other house incumbents lost on Tuesday: Bruce Goforth of Buncombe County, Ronnie Sutton of Robeson County and Earl Jones of Guilford County, all Democrats, lost on Tuesday. One Republican lost, but she gets her own post below this one.

The Losers- Yeah, Nick Mackey lost. So did Julia Boseman. But do you know who the biggest losers of the night were?

The RNC and the DNC.

The DNC told Elaine Marshall, a four-time statewide election victor, to get lost. Their choice- some dude who was a state senator from somewhere for like, two years or something. How’d that work out, DNC? Oh, and now look- not only did the lady you screwed over beat your lackey, but now there’s gonna be a run-off and Richard Burr has more time to get ready for his opponent. Way to go!

Not to be outdone, the RNC brain-trust recruited candidates for the 8th District and the 11th district. Candidates who were supposed to be unstoppable. Candidates who would dominate a primary and dispatch the Democrat incumbents in November. Candidates who were vetted by the RNC Einsteins as the best possible Republican to run for those seats.

Yeah…

8th District- Lou Huddleston, 8.24% of the vote; 4th in a six-way race.
11th District- Greg Newman, 11.67%; 3rd in a six-way race.

Y’know, I’m starting a fund, right here on CPO, to benefit whoever was in charge of recruiting those jabronies. I’ll personally put up money for it. The prize? A trip to a blissful, serene tropical island, accompanied by none other than RNC Chair Michael Steele…. with no ticket back home.

Probably the best ass beating that took place tonight was that of the corrupt and sleazy Nick Mackey.  Mackey failed miserably to secure the nomination of his party.  His opponent Rodney Moore received 62% of the vote leaving Mackey with a paltry 38%.  Like they say, crime never pays.

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham appear to be headed to a runoff election.  With 89 counties fully reported Marshall had 36% of the vote and Cunningham had 27%.

In the U.S. House Republican primaries, Renee Ellmers has won the Second District primary with 55% of the vote.  Congressman Walter Jones survived his primary challenge with 77% of the vote.  B.J. Lawson edged out Frank Roche in the Fourth District primary with 46% of the vote.  Ilario Pantano won the Seventh District primary with 50% of the vote, defeating 2008 nominee Will Breazeale.  In the closely watched Eighth District, Tim D’Annunzio and Harold Johnson will head to a run off to determine who will face Congressman Larry Kissell in November.  In the Tenth District Congressman Patrick McHenry easily fended off his challengers with 62% of the vote.  The Eleventh District is too close to call.  With 13 of 15 counties reporting, Jeff Miller had 40.47% of the vote, just half a percent more than what he needs to avoid a run off election.  The results from the last two counties will determine whether or not that will be needed.  If so, he will face Dan Eichenbaum in a run off.  And CPO contributor Paul Terrell won his primary race in State House District 33 with 67% of the vote.

In Mecklenburg County for the Republican primary for County Commissioner At-Large, former Sheriff Jim Pendergraph, former Commissioner Dan Ramirez, and Corey Thompson were the top three vote getters.

Anyways, the Democrats hoping to take on Richard Burr got together for a little debate the other night. I didn’t watch it because I’m already severely depressed and watching it would have probably driven me over the edge. I’ve read the reports though, and one of the interesting things I’ve noticed is that some of Cal Cunningham’s opponents must be CPO readers.

Ann Worthy took issue with Cal Cunningham’s answer about his views on drilling off the North Carolina coast. She suggested his rambling answer seemed waffle on the issue.

“You can’t have it both ways,” she said to Cunningham. “You’re either for it or against it.”

Cunningham answered that he was against drilling, saying alternative energy was the answer for North Carolina.

The N&O

Straight outta Bane Windlow’s mouth to your ears, Ann.

No Democrat debate would be complete without someone saying something astoundingly, brain-numbingly stupid. This evening it was Cunningham, who appears to be so desperate to prove he loves Gaia, he’s pulling lies out of his ass right on stage:

Cunningham’s Gollum-esque answers on offshore drilling haven’t scared away the Sierra Club- they endorsed him on Thursday, prompting Ken Lewis to pitch a fit:

Even though it would appear that the folks of North Carolina feel Richard Burr is an ineffective Senator overall, they still seem to prefer him over any of the Democrats.  In my opinion, this emphasizes the disconnect that exists between the Obama administration and the American people in general.

I must say it’s nice to see some Democrats publicly opposing Obama’s decree for once rather than walking ahead of him throwing rose pedals at his feet like they’ve all been doing for the past year.

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — President Barack Obama’s plan to allow oil drilling off North Carolina’s coast has no support among his party’s chief candidates for U.S. Senate in the state.

Chapel Hill attorney Ken Lewis positioned himself in an interview with The Associated Press as the most forceful opponent of offshore drilling, saying he wasn’t convinced that exploration would reduce gas prices and arguing that it would distract the country from focusing on low-carbon sources. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall said she would support exploration to see how much oil would be available but worries about the environmental and economic threat of drilling.

“I am not very keen about that at all,” she said.

Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham said he would currently vote against any drilling but might consider it as part of a broader energy plan.

Salisbury Post

So we have three candidates and three varying points of view:  an environmental extremist, an opportunist licking his finger and sticking it in the air, and a reasonable voice of common sense.

Ken Lewis apparently wants you to suffer from higher gas prices as we become more dependent on foreign oil with each passing year.  I thought the Democrat Party was the “party of the working man” but I’m sure the “working man” doesn’t want to pay $4.00 per gallon of gas again, especially those Teamsters driving semi-trucks.  I can assure Mr. Lewis that the country is not going to stop researching alternative energy sources.  It’s becoming quite a lucrative market actually.  There was a green stock I had considered purchasing  few months back and changed my mind and now the damn thing has gone up 60% since that time.

Cal Cunningham is trying to have it both ways.  He’s attempting to placate the environmental kook lobby while at the same time telling normal people like the rest of us that he could be open to drilling if it’s part of a broader plan, whatever that means.

Elaine Marshall is for the most part being quite sensible.  We absolutely should explore for oil and use our own resources rather than send billions and billions of dollars to terrorist nations and to the heads of enemy states like Venezuela.  Naturally, we want to take appropriate cautions to avoid mishaps that could pollute our oceans and coastlines.  Nobody wants to go surfing in an oil slick.  I’m not sure what economic concerns she has.  Everything I have read indicates that drilling off the Carolina coast would be an economic boom for both states.

Remember, however, that Obama is not giving the green light to drilling offshore.  He is allowing for exploration.  That doesn’t mean that if they find something they will be able to drill.  We already know there are oil deposits along our continental shelf, but they will still have to go through the long, involved never ending permitting process and fight lawsuit after lawsuit from environmental groups and injunction after injunction from sympathetic judges before a drill bit will ever touch the ocean floor.  Unless that is changed we’ll be into the next decade before any drilling begins and Obama knows that which is why I am skeptical of his whole support for this.  I think this is just a carrot he is dangling to get Republicans on board with Cap and Fraud because most of them are not as boneheaded as Lindsey Grahamnesty.

U.S. Senate- Democrat Primary
Elaine Marshall- 29%
Cal Cunningham- 12%
Ken Lewis- 5%
Marcus Williams- 2%
Undecided- 51%
(moe-4.9%; PPP, 400 Democrats, Feb. 12-15)

Elaine Marshall- 14%
Cal Cunningham- 4%
Ken Lewis- 5%
Undecided- 77%
(moe-5%; Civitas, 367 Democrats, Feb. 15-18)

h/t- The N&O

Despite Burr’s low approval rating, as every other poll that has been commissioned, he still leads all of his potential Democrat opponents, although the gaps have narrowed.  Burr leads Elaine Marshall by five points, Kenneth Lewis by six, and Cal Cunningham by nine.  This shows that either folks still aren’t sold on their selection of replacements to Burr, of which there is plenty of time to change, or that they feel even less confident in putting a Democrat in his place given the unpopularity of the party in D.C. right now.

It seems people feel like they have a choice between a giant douche or a turd sandwich.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall has picked up the endorsement of two national women’s organization’s in her bid to win the May Democratic Senate primary.

She has been endorsed by the National Organization for Women and the Women’s Campaign Forum, Rob Christensen reports.

The group’s national affiliate, the National Women’s Political Caucus, is also considering backing Marshall, according to the Marshall campaign. The Marshall campaign is hoping her early endorsements from women’s groups will blunt the impact of the backing of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee of one of her opponents, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham. Also in the race is Chapel Hill attorney Kenneth Lewis.

The N&O

So why do I feel sorry for her? Imagine you’ve been a statewide elected official since 1996 and the first woman elected statewide in N.C. history. You beat Richard Petty (Richard Petty!) to win that race. You’ve been re-elected fairly easily ever since. You’ve built up a network of contacts and support across N.C. It’s YOUR turn, dammit! And now you jump into a U.S. Senate race that your party thinks they can win with the right candidate.

Except your party doesn’t think you’re that candidate. Your party (the D.C. version, anyways) is creaming their jeans over some guy named Cal Cunningham who was an unknown state senator for about 6 minutes back several years ago.

Damn, that sucks.

General Election Matchups
Burr 46 — Cunningham 27 — Und 27
Burr 44 — Etheridge 33 — Und 23
Burr 45 — Foy 29 — Und 26
Burr 44 — Lewis 30 — Und 26
Burr 44 — Marshall 32 — Und 24
Burr 43 — Wicker 30 — Und 26

Burr 45 — Generic D 34 — Und 22

That’s the analysis of the political pollster Public Policy Polling.  It’s not that Richard Burr has done a bad job for the folks in North Carolina.  It’s not that they’re all that unhappy with him.  The problem is he just hasn’t done anything significant enough to get leave his personal imprint on and get recognition from.  Basically, nobody knows who he is or not enough about him to form an opinion after five years in the U.S. Senate.

Burr’s approval rating is only 38%, which would usually be considered abysmal for an incumbent. Interestingly, his disapproval is only 32%, with a whopping 29% undecided.

It’s not that he’s unpopular — it’s that in the time since he was first elected in 2004, he has thus far failed to actually make an impression on the voters.

The pollster’s analysis suggests that the outlook for this race could depend on the national climate: “Burr’s standing has improved a little bit as the climate has gotten worse for Democrats nationally but if Barack Obama’s approval starts heading back in the right direction this race has the potential to be a toss up.”

TPM

Which is what I’ve said as well.  If next year is good for Republicans, Burr is safe.  If not, he could be taken down like Dole was last year.

The good news for Burr is that he is still beating all potential Democrats by a decent margin.  The bad news is he is still way under 50% and there are a lot of undecideds, who historically will break for the challenger.

North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is “pretty seriously leaning towards” running against Republican Sen. Richard M. Burr in 2010, campaign strategist Thomas Mills tell CQ Politics.

“She’s gotten very strong feedback both in state and in Washington,” said Mills.

If you paid attention to President Obama’s health care forum in Raleigh, N.C. on Wednesday, you would have noticed her there, as well.

As the number of Democratic prospects continue to dwindle, Marshall is looking like a lead contender to take on Burr, whose shaky standing at home has Democratic party leaders drooling.

CQPolitics

Marshall would probably be the only really competitive opponent Burr could get next year.  The Democrats have not been able to produce anything more than third tier challengers.  Marshall would make it more exciting, but I still think Burr is going to have the upper hand.  Everything right now is pointing to a good year for the GOP in 2010, but that could change in a minute.