Carolina Politics Online

Republican congressional candidate Harold Johnson today dismissed a poll done for his rival, Democratic Rep. Larry Kissell, calling it “a desperate move.”

The internal campaign poll, by the Democratic firm Anzalone Liszt Research, showed Kissell with a 17-point lead over Johnson and a wider spread over Libertarian Thomas Hill in the 8th District.

Kissell highlighted the poll in a fundraising letter last week.

“I’m putting no stock in it,” Johnson said today at a GOP rally in east Charlotte. “You can’t convince me that with the sentiment in this country … he’s got a 17-point lead.

Charlotte Observer

I don’t discount that Kissell may be leading Johnson, but Johnson is right.  There’s not a chance in hell it’s by 17 points, not in a Republican leaning district in a Republican leaning year.  This was an internal Democratic poll, so it’s not to be taken with more than a grain of salt anyway.

CONCORD – Eighth District political campaigns may be taking a breather for the moment, but they have a lot of intra-party healing to do before November.

For incumbent Larry Kissell, he is running on his record from his first term in Congress, which includes a no-vote on the health care reform law.

Meanwhile, GOP candidate Harold Johnson has his work cut out for him, trying to win Tim D’Annunzio’s supporters to back him against Kissell.

That may be easier said than done.

Independent Tribune

Boy, you can say that again.  That was one of the most brutal primaries I’ve ever seen.  Seriously, Hollywood could not have written something so absurd.  The cast of characters in this whole ordeal may as well have been straight out of a Monty Python flick.

Honestly, I don’t think Johnson will have as hard of a time getting D’Annunzio supporters to go with him in November as some may suspect.  If conservatives really want the Democrats out of the majority that badly, they’re going to vote for him even if they do so grinding their teeth.  This could be a good opening for Thomas Hill, though, the Libertarian candidate.  If he could get the resources, he might be able to gather up some of the disaffected D’Annunzio supporters to back him.

Last night’s run off settled some remaining scores and now that everyone knows who their opponent is, they can begin focusing on the November races.

Elaine Marshall won the Democratic nomination for the U.S.Senate race in North Carolina. She will now face incumbent Republican Richard Burr and Libertarian Michael Beitler.  I rank this race as leaning Republican.

State Representative Nikki Haley handily defeated Congressman Gresham Barrett in the Republican gubernatorial run off for South Carolina.  Haley will now face Democratic State Senator Vincent Sheheen in the fall to determine who will succeed Governor Mark Sanford.  I rank this race as also leaning Republican.  Ken Ard will be Haley’s Lt Governor running mate.

In North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District Republican run off Harold Johnson easily bested Tim D’Annunzio as expected.  D’Annunzio will now have all the time he needs to begin excavating the State of Arizona for the lost Ark of the Convenant.  Johnson will face incumbent Democratic Congressman Larry Kissell and Libertarian Thomas Hill in November.  I rank this race as leaning Democratic.

In North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District Bill Randall defeated Bernie Reeves.  Democrat Brad Miller is the incumbent in this gerrymandered district which covers a small portion of the Triangle and then shoots up to the Virginia border.  This is a D+5 district, so it’s not overwhelmingly Democratic, though I lean this race towards Miller.  Given the political environment this year, however, we could see Randall pull off an upset in November.

In South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District State Representative Tim Scott defeated Paul Thurmond by a huge margin in the Republican run off.  Although Congressman Henry Brown almost lost this seat in 2008, it is still pretty reliably Republican.  Scott is likely to win the November election.

State Representative Jeff Duncan defeated political newcomer Richard Cash by only a three point margin in the Republican run off for South Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District.  This is a solidly Republican seat and we are sure to see Duncan succeed Gresham Barrett in January.

Congressman Bob Inglis became another incumbent to lose reelection in his party’s primary in what’s becoming a long line of incumbent bloodletting all across the country.  Trey Gowdy laid the smackdown on him pretty hard last night.  Like the 3rd, the 4th is solidly Republican and Gowdy will be the next Congressman come January.

Alan Wilson won the Republican run off for South Carolina’s Attorney General race.  The odds favor him to win the general election in November.  Mick Zais won the State Education Superintendent Republican run off and he will face Democrat Frank Holleman in the general.  I rank this race as a toss up.  This is the one statewide seat that the Democrats traditionally seem to be able to capture in this state, probably because Democrats are generally trusted on education issues better than the GOP.  Although, with the political environment favoring the GOP this year more so than normal, Zais could emerge victorious.

In South Carolina’s State House run offs, Doug Brannon ousted one term State Representative Joey Millwood in the 38th House District.  This was an unfortunate result as Brannon supports the failed status quo of public education in this state, where as Millwood was a school choice supporter.  On the other hand, Andy Patrick absolutely pummeled State Representative Richard Chalk in the 123rd so that balances out the Millwood loss.  Democrat Boyd Brown just barely kept his seat in District 41 and Republican Marion Frye hung on to his seat in District 39.

And since I live in York County I always like to weigh on our local races.  Both County Council incumbents in the Republican run off lost their seats.  Eric Winstead defeated Councilman Joe Cox in District 3 and Britt Blackwell beat Buddy Motz in District 6.  David Bowman secured the nomination in District 1, the seat currently held by sleaze bag Paul Lindemann who only managed to get a paltry 12% in the primary election two weeks ago.

9:35pm
It looks pretty certain that Mick Zais has won the State Superintendent run off. That pretty much sums everything up. I’ll write a recap tomorrow.


9:20pm
With 100% reporting in, Jeff Duncan has 51.5% and Richard Cash 48.5% so it appears Duncan is the victor in SC-03.


9:13pm
SC-03 is the last hold out here. With 86% reporting Jeff Duncan leads Richard Cash 53% – 47%. Apparently, the AP feels it’s still too close to call it.


9:09pm
Well, as much as it pains me, I must call the York County Council District 1 run off for David Bowman, not that there’s anything wrong with Bowman, we just really like Kyle Boyd.


9:05pm
Ken Ard has won the Lieutenant Governor run off.


9:03pm
Bill Randall has defeated Bernie Reeves in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District run off.


9:02pm
Harold Johnson has defeated Tim D’Annunzio in North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District run off.


9:00pm

8:57pm

8:55pm

8:51pm
Not looking good for Kyle Boyd. :sigh:


8:47pm
South Carolina State Representative Richard Chalk has lost reelection in the 123rd House District.


8:45pm
Tim Scott has won the Republican run off for South Carolina’s First Congressional District.


8:45pm
Alan Wilson has won the Republican Attorney General run off.


8:43pm
York County Councilmen Joe Cox and Buddy Motz have both lost their run off elections.


8:39pm
Congressman Bob Inglis has lost reelection. Oh happy day!


8:37pm

8:35pm
Elaine Marshall has won the Democratic nomination for North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.


8:28pm
Nikki Haley has won the Republican run off for governor!


8:21pm

8:13pm

8:03pm

7:56pm

7:53pm

7:48pm

The polls have closed in South Carolina. They will close in North Carolina at 7:30. I will be updating the results as they come in.

So up on my side of Pedro’s South of the Border, there are only three races that really matter: U.S. Senate, U.S. House 8, and U.S. House 13. Here are my predictions of who I think will win, and who I think should win.

U.S. Senate- Democrat
That Old Lady vs. Whats-his-Face

Yes, it’s the epic battle of the century- some old lady versus some guy from somewhere who used to be a state senator at some point. This thing is so intense I’ll be happy when it’s over so I can catch my breath.

OK, end sarcasm. If I wasn’t a political nerd, I would have no idea there was even an election tomorrow. This race has been almost non-existent. It’s a statewide primary for a U.S. Senate seat that’s actually winnable, and no one seems to give two rat turds about it. I haven’t even seen a poll on this race, have you?

So who will win? Oh… I’ll go with the Old Lady. She’s run statewide since 1996 and has an entrenched base of support as a result. Run-offs are all about turnout, and I think she’s got the manpower to get her supporters out there. Cunningham is too much of an unknown without a lot of statewide experience. Old Lady- 56%, Whats-his-Face- 44%

Who should win? I could care less.

U.S. House 13th District- Republican
Bill Randall vs. Bernie Reeves

This race has gotten just as nasty and low as the more publicized 8th District run-off. Reeves accused Randall of using viagra on his military record. Randall insinuated that maybe there’s “collusion” between the government and BP. Reeves has more money and establishment support. Randall is the Tea Party candidate and I’ve seen a lot of his supporters out there working for him. Either one faces a huge, huge hurdle against Brad Miller this fall, but I think either one can beat Miller with a good mixture of luck and skill.

Who will win? I’ll take the Navy guy with infantry support. In a turnout game, I’d rather have the committed volunteers that Randall has over Reeves’ ability to shit money. In the first election, a lot of that local support was split between Randall and 3rd place finisher Dan Huffman. I think Randall picks up most of Huffman’s support and wins. Randall- 54%, Reeves-46%.

Who should win? Really, I kinda liked Huffman. Oh well. Of the two of them, I like Randall more because, a) he answers our questionnaires; b) he’s a good guy; and c) he actually shows up to campaign instead of trying to buy votes. I’ve heard bad things about how Reeves acts, and he’s slung mud at Randall. So we here at CPO like Bill and wish him luck tomorrow.

U.S. House 13th District- Republican
Tim D’Annunzio vs. Harold Johnson

Ho boy…   this one sure has been interesting, hasn’t it? I suppose there isn’t much more to say that hasn’t already been said in court documents and on previous posts here on CPO, so let’s get on with the predictions.

Who will win: Johnson. Sorry Timmy D., but money can’t buy everything. I do think Timmy D’s supporters, who are rabidly loyal, will make this interesting though. Johnson 60%. D’Annunzio 40%.

Who Should Win: D’Annunzio. Yup. You read that right. I think D’Annunzio shuld win. Why? Well… he really wants it. That counts for something. And I think it would be great to throw a firecracker right at Tom Fetzer’s and the RNC’s faces. Hey knuckleheads… you wanna  stick your nose in someone else’s primary, don’t be surprised if you come back with no more nose. I know all the problems with D’Annunzio, but I’ll take him over the GOP establishment that has stepped in their own shit for two years in regards to this race. They deserve to have D’Annunzio foisted upon them as punishment.

But Celtic, then Larry Kissell will win. Yeah, he probably will. But what happens if Johnson wins the primary? I think Johnson will beat Kissell. And no, I’m actually not happy about that. Johnson is a RINO. All he’ll be is a GOP “yes” man for 4-6 years. And when he decides to step down, the GOP establishment will pick another RINO, maybe L’il Prince Chucklehead, to replace him. But if Kissell stays in another term, maybe there’s a chance to get a real conservative in there in 2012.

And Johnson is a carpetbagger. This is an unforgivable sin for me. I lived in N.Y. when that evil bitch moved there in 2000 just to run for the U.S. Senate. I thought it was disgusting then, and I think it’s disgusting now. How is what Harold Johnson did any different? He lived in Iredell County for 30 damn years, but moved to Caburrus just to run for office? Homey don’t play that game, Big Guy.

So there’s my picks. I’ll try to provide real-time updates for you tomorrow night, along with Bane’s S.C. analysis.

Flanked by lawyers, Harold Johnson on Tuesday denounced a lawsuit by rival Tim D’Annunzio as “embarrassing and frivolous” as the war of words between the two Republican congressional candidates continued to escalate.

D’Annunzio sued Johnson for defamation Monday in Cumberland County Superior Court.

“This again is a desperate attack by a desperate candidate,” Johnson said at a news conference in Charlotte.

Charlotte Observer

Like sands through the hourglass, so our the days of our lives.

Republican congressional candidate Tim D’Annunzio on Monday sued GOP rival Harold Johnson for defamation over ads that he said “deliberately spread lies, innuendos, and false statements.”

Johnson was served at a campaign event in Fayetteville. The suit was filed in Cumberland County.

Charlotte Observer

If Tim D’Annunzio wants to serve in Congress he is going to have to become a lot more thick skinned than this.  If he gets elected, wait until the left starts savaging him.  He’ll be a prime target as outspoken as he is.  In all honesty, he’s starting to remind me of Orlando Congressman Alan Grayson and that’s not a good thing.

I doubt he’ll be successful in this suit.  It’s incredibly difficult to prove libel or defamation against a politician and those lawsuits rarely produce results.

Update: We apparently have got video

In a statement Tuesday evening, D’Annunzio’s said he was not participating in the June 8 debate due “to the collaboration between the Harold Johnson campaign and the news media to use partial truth, innuendo and accusations to unfairly smear me” and that he would instead be holding telephone town hall events on the evenings of June 8 and June 9.

“I thank my supporters who have continued to stand by me through the false accusations made towards me and my campaign, and I will keep fighting to set the record straight and clear my good name,” D’Annunzio said.

Politico

And the saga continues.  Is D’Annunzio making the wrong move, or is it better for him to do his planned town halls where he can actually have full interaction with his audience?  On the other hand, the news reports of him backing out of the debate could make people think he is running away from something.  When you think about it, how many people really tune into debate for a U.S. House race?  I don’t know the answer to that, but I would guess it’s not a huge number.

The North Carolina Republican Party is not pleased with the outcome of the 8th District primary and are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at Tim D’Annunzio in the hopes of derailing his Congressional bid in the upcoming run off election between he and Republican Harold Johnson.

“Mr. D’Annunzio has disqualified himself by his background, his record and his behavior,” said Tom Fetzer, North Carolina’s Republican Party chairman. He said the GOP embraces the tea party but doesn’t believe a person with such a checkered past should be the party’s nominee.

In Hoke County divorce records, his wife said in 1995 that D’Annunzio had claimed to be the Messiah, had traveled to New Jersey to raise his stepfather from the dead, believed God would drop a 1,000-mile high pyramid as the New Jerusalem on Greenland and found the Ark of the Covenant in Arizona. A doctor’s evaluation the following month said D’Annunzio used marijuana almost daily, had been living with another woman for several months, had once been in drug treatment for heroin dependence and was jailed a couple times as a teenager.

The AP

Oh my….

I’m guessing this was quite a bitter divorce and it’s possible that things were said that nobody really meant.  Or hell, maybe it was just the drugs.  One thing I do know, Fetzer had better hope that his tactic works for the sake of his party, because if D’Annunzio does win the run off, this outing of his alleged past is going to back fire on the GOP in a very ugly way.  Kissell will use all of this ammunition in the general election and will secure himself a second term.  In fact, Kissell has got to be loving every minute of this.  I’m rather enjoying it all myself.  I can say that of all the political chaos that has broken out this past week around the country, Rand Paul, Nikki Haley, etc., this is certainly the most bizarre.

The polls have now been closed for a few hours and enough of the precincts have reported to project fairly accurate results at this point.  So what happened?

Probably the best ass beating that took place tonight was that of the corrupt and sleazy Nick Mackey.  Mackey failed miserably to secure the nomination of his party.  His opponent Rodney Moore received 62% of the vote leaving Mackey with a paltry 38%.  Like they say, crime never pays.

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham appear to be headed to a runoff election.  With 89 counties fully reported Marshall had 36% of the vote and Cunningham had 27%.

In the U.S. House Republican primaries, Renee Ellmers has won the Second District primary with 55% of the vote.  Congressman Walter Jones survived his primary challenge with 77% of the vote.  B.J. Lawson edged out Frank Roche in the Fourth District primary with 46% of the vote.  Ilario Pantano won the Seventh District primary with 50% of the vote, defeating 2008 nominee Will Breazeale.  In the closely watched Eighth District, Tim D’Annunzio and Harold Johnson will head to a run off to determine who will face Congressman Larry Kissell in November.  In the Tenth District Congressman Patrick McHenry easily fended off his challengers with 62% of the vote.  The Eleventh District is too close to call.  With 13 of 15 counties reporting, Jeff Miller had 40.47% of the vote, just half a percent more than what he needs to avoid a run off election.  The results from the last two counties will determine whether or not that will be needed.  If so, he will face Dan Eichenbaum in a run off.  And CPO contributor Paul Terrell won his primary race in State House District 33 with 67% of the vote.

In Mecklenburg County for the Republican primary for County Commissioner At-Large, former Sheriff Jim Pendergraph, former Commissioner Dan Ramirez, and Corey Thompson were the top three vote getters.

Harold Johnson earned an extra helping of wrath because I think he’s got more explaining to do that his opponents. Here are the extra questions that Harold Johnson didn’t bother to answer for you:

15. I lived in New York when Hillary Clinton moved to the state just to run for the U.S. Senate, and I was very critical of her. You moved into the 8th District just to run for Congress. How are you different from her? Tell the voters why they should vote for you over several people who’ve lived in the district longer than you have.

16. According to the N.C. Board of Elections, you’re not a regular voter. You rarely vote in primaries or municipal elections. Do you think that should matter when voters are considering their choices? Why or why not?

17. Finally, you’re well known in the western part of the district. Why should a voter from the eastern part of the 8th (Fayetteville or Raeford) support you?

Check out that middle one. Now that he’s switched from Iredell to Cabarrus County, the NC Board of Elections doesn’t have his old voting record online. Lucky for me I copied it before he switched over.

Missed 2006 and every primary. I didn’t know broadcasting was so arduous and time consuming. Oh, but there’s more… or less, depending on your point of view. As it turns out, the fine folks at the Iredell County BOE were more than happy to provide me with a longer list of Harold’s missed votes. As it turns out, The Big Guy hasn’t voted in a primary or municipal election since 1992.

Makes me wonder if he’ll remember to vote in this primary. Someone on his campaign staff should be sure to remind him.

Honestly, why even bother switching districts if you didn’t even vote in your old one?

Oh, and one more thing- I can answer at least one of the questions The Big Guy failed to:

5. Have you signed the Club for Growth’s Health Care repeal pledge? If not, why not?

As of Wednesday night, the answer is “NO”. Too bad he won’t tell us why.

Looks like Timmy D. has decided who is biggest rival is. Ouch…

Congressman Larry Kissell (D-NC-08) has had a stressful first year in Washington and it’s understandable.  He represents a district that leans Republican and has had to engage in a balancing act to keep the Republicans and conservative leaning independents in his district satisfied enough to reelect him this year, but not without pissing off his Democrat base.  On the surface it wouldn’t seem as if he’s been overly successful.  His potential Republican challengers are attacking him for voting with his party 96% of the time and his Democrat supporters are upset that he’s bucked his party on some major legislation, like the health care bill where Kissell voted no.

Critics on both sides fault Kissell’s record of voting with the majority of his party 96 percent of the time, more than North Carolina’s conservative Blue Dog Democrats – Heath Shuler and Mike McIntyre – but less than the state’s five other Democratic House members.

Democrats wish he’d stuck with the party on more votes, such as health care. Republicans criticize him for sticking with it too much.

“He comes from a district that trends conservative irrespective of party affiliation, and he votes 96 percent with the speaker of the House,” said 8th District GOP candidate Lou Huddleston of Fayetteville. “It’s that 96 percent that represent his true colors.”

Charlotte Observer

However, Public Policy Polling shows that as of right now, he’s in decent shape for seeing a second term in Congress.  Up against all the Republican candidates Kissell polls relatively the same:  54 – 38 against Tim D’Annunzio, 55 – 37 against Lou Huddleston, 53 – 39 against Harold Johnson, and 55 – 39 against Hal Jordan.  It obviously won’t stay this way.  None of the four Republican candidates are statewide names so their name recognition is still low.  Once the Republican primary is over and a candidate is elected to run on the ticket in a head to head race against Kissell we will begin to see the numbers shift.  As of right now, however, he doesn’t seem to be affected by Obama’s or the Democrats’ growing unpopularity around the country which should give him some solace for now.

Another Republican candidate has jumped into the race to secure the Republican nomination and rights to run against Congressman Larry Kissell of North Carolina’s Eighth District.  Harold Johnson, a former sports anchor for WSOC Channel 9 in Charlotte for 26 years officially announced this past Friday that he will enter the race as a Republican.  Johnson is also a retired U.S. Marine and pledges to run a clean campaign.  One hurdle he may face, however, is push back he may receive as being labeled a carpetbagger.  Johnson does not yet live in the Eighth District and he is already taking heat for it.

Fellow candidate Tim D’Annunzio released the following statement yesterday:

RAEFORD, NC – Tim D’Annunzio, Republican candidate for Congress in the 8th district of North Carolina, today denounced Howard Harold Johnson for his entry into the 8th district Congressional race. Johnson does not currently, nor has he ever, lived in the 8th district.

“Voters in our district, from Cumberland to Cabarrus County and in between, should be offended that a candidate who has never been a resident of this district is attempting to represent them in Washington,” said Tim D’Annunzio. “I have been a resident of Hoke County for thirty years and understand the dynamics of our district as it spreads from the military base at Ft. Bragg, to the financial hub of Charlotte.

“We don’t need a member of the biased, mainstream media representing our interests in Washington. Our community deserves better than that. What we need is someone who knows how to create jobs and get this country back on track to economic stability. As a small business owner, I have created hundreds of jobs right here in North Carolina and will push for lower taxes and less regulation to reduce unemployment and encourage economic growth.

“Mr. Johnson is an outsider who thinks his sports casting background will win him votes. Ironically, the vote he won’t get is his own. My message to him is clear – stay out of our district.”

Johnson’s campaign Web site is http://voteharoldjohnson.com/ and at the moment is a work in progress.