Carolina Politics Online

The Sun Journal did a piece over the weekend about Congressman Walter Jones (R) and his Democratic challenger Craig Weber.  As part of a quick Congressional history recap on Jones, they noted his well publicized shunning he’s received from his own party over the past few years after he broke from the neo-con ranks opposing continued action in Iraq.  Ironically, if the GOP followed Jones’ lead from the get go they might still be in power today and not facing their second electoral bloodbath in a row in tomorrow’s election.

The Senate as you are well aware by now passed a sweetened version of the bailout Tuesday evening.  The House voted again today and complied, as I suspected they would.  So the dirty deed is now done.  Bear in mind that this bill was rife with waist added by the Senate on Tuesday night that had nothing to do with the economical turmoil.

• $2 million tax benefit for makers of wooden arrows for children
• $100 million tax break to benefit auto racetrack owners
• $192 million in rebates on excise taxes for the Puerto Rican and Virgin Islands rum industry
• $148 million in tax relief for U.S. wool fabric producers
• $49 million tax benefit for fishermen and other plaintiffs who sued over the 1989 tanker Exxon Valdez spill.

People, are you not outraged?  If so, ask yourself why you might be going to the voting booth in November to return the same people to office who just voted for one of the largest Federal power grabs in American history and threw almost a trillion dollars of money we don’t have down the toilet.  Are those of you in South Carolina prepared to give Lindsey Graham another six years?  Think twice.  He’s one of the culprits.  Richard Burr also voted for it on behalf of North Carolina.  Senators Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) opposed the measure.  Additionally, both Presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama voted for the bailout as did VP candidate Joe Biden.

I can’t get the vote information from the House yet.  The Web site must be getting swamped with traffic because it’s timing out on me, but I’ll post it as soon as I have it available.

Update: I now have the House roll. Sue Myrick and Gresham Barrett flipped on this, voting for the bailout today, whereas they voted against it before.

Voting for the bill:

• Bob Etheridge (D-NC-02)
• David Price (D-NC-04)
• Howard Coble (R-NC-06)
• Sue Myrick (R-NC-09)
• Mel Watt (D-NC-12)
• Brad Miller (D-NC-13)
• Henry Brown (R-SC-01)
• Joe Wilson (R-SC-02)
• Gresham Barrett (R-SC-03)
• Bob Inglis (R-SC-04)
• John Spratt (D-SC-05)
• Jim Clyburn (D-SC-06)

Voting against the bill:

• G.K. Butterfield (D-NC-01)
• Walter Jones (R-NC-03)
• Virginia Foxx (R-NC-05)
• Mike McIntyre (D-NC-07)
• Robin Hayes (R-NC-08)
• Patrick McHenry (R-NC-10)
• Heath Shuler (D-NC-11)

As I’m sure you have heard by now, the $700 billion bailout failed to pass the House of Representatives today by a mere 13 votes.  I was opposed to this bailout, so I am rather pleased, for now.  They’ll try something again.  I just have a huge issue with this theory that corporations can privatize all of their gains but socialize their losses.  That just doesn’t seem quite right to me.

This video pretty much sums up my thoughts.

So how did your representative vote?  Did they vote to use your tax dollars to bail out Wall Street fat cats or did they vote to save your tax dollars?

Voting for the bailout were:

• Bob Etheridge (D-NC-02)
• David Price (D-NC-04)
• Mel Watt (D-NC-12)
• Brad Miller (D-NC-13)
• Henry Brown (R-SC-01)
• Joe Wilson (R-SC-02)
• Bob Inglis (R-SC-04)
• John Spratt (D-SC-05)
• Jim Clyburn (D-SC-06)

Voting against the heinous bailout were:

• G.K. Butterfield (D-NC-01)
• Walter Jones (R-NC-03)
• Virginia Foxx (R-NC-05)
• Howard Coble (R-NC-06)
• Mike McIntyre (D-NC-07)
• Robin Hayes (R-NC-08)
• Sue Myrick (R-NC-09)
• Patrick McHenry (R-NC-10)
• Heath Shuler (D-NC-11)
• Gresham Barrett (R-SC-03)

Boy, the South Carolina delegation sure sucks a nut.  David Price is no surprise.  He loves using your money to give special favors to all of his corporate friends.  Same with Henry Brown.  I expected Watt to be on the yea list as well because he is a Socialist.  Overall it looks to be just about split down the middle.  Now you know who is on your side and who is pining for the Rockefellers.

The U.S. Senate today overwhelmingly sent President Bush a spending bill of $634 billion to keep the government “operating beyond the current budget year.”  If only that were the case.  This budget passage, as every other, consisted of a hogfest of a Congressional pen of pigs in starched white shirts feeding from the trough that you and I provided.  This thing is stuffed with thousands of earmarks in addition to $25 billion of taxpayer funded loans to help bailout the automakers.  The bill was presented in its final form from the House to the Senate as H.R. 2638, Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2008, sponsored by none other than our very own Representative David Price (D-NC-04).

How did our representatives vote?  As usual, in the Senate Jim DeMint stood up and vocally opposed the legislation.  Lindsey Graham joined him in voting against it.  Richard Burr made a rare and unusual move, voting Present, Giving Live Pair.  What this means is that somebody else who not present at the vote and knew they wouldn’t be who planned on voting the opposite way Burr was made a deal with him to vote present so that the outcome wouldn’t be altered by their absence.  In other words, for the sake of argument, let’s say Burr was hypothetically going to vote No, but John McCain was absent and was planning to vote Yes which would cancel out Burr’s vote anyway.  McCain would ask Burr to vote Present then so that the same result is produced.  As I said, this is just a hypothetical.  Burr may have intended to vote Yes and made a deal with an absent Senator who wanted to vote against it.  And we can’t forget Liddy Dole who as usual voted for her pork.

In the House we had the following voting for the waste:

• G.K. Butterfield (D-NC-01)
• Bob Etheridge (D-NC-01)
• David Price (D-NC-04)
• Howard Coble (R-NC-06)
• Mike McIntyre (D-NC-07)
• Robin Hayes (R-NC-08)
• Sue Myrick (R-NC-09)
• Patrick McHenry (R-NC-10)
• Mel Watt (D-NC-12)
• Brad Miller (D-NC-13)
• Henry Brown (R-SC-01)
• Joe Wilson (R-SC-02)
• John Spratt (D-SC-05)
• Jim Clyburn (D-SC-06)

Voting against the waste were:

• Walter Jones (R-NC-03)
• Virginia Foxx (R-NC-05)
• Gresham Barrett (R-SC-03)
• Bob Inglis (R-SC-04)

Heath Shuler did not vote.

The House passed H.R. 6899 last night, otherwise known as the Comprehensive American Energy Security and Consumer Protection Act.  As I touched on yesterday, this is the House version of Lindsey Graham’s “Gang of 10″ bill that will do absolutely nothing to open up oil reserves off of our shores and lower gas prices.  This bill is nothing more than political cover so that politicians can go into the November election lying to their constituents that they voted for offshore drilling, when they didn’t.  Most of the coastal oil reserves will remain untapped under this bill and will have no effect.  Furthermore, the states will get no royalties from the drilling, so which state is going to okay this and take the slight risk of an oil spill without any revenue from it?  None of them will and Nancy Pelosi knows that.  Let’s not forget the tax increase the oil companies will receive as well which will get passed on to you and me when we’re buying our gas.

So who in the Carolinas voted for this hoax?  Who will lie to you between now and Election Day and claim they voted to lower your prices at the pump?  A lot of them.

Voting aye were:

• G.K. Butterfield (D-NC-01)
• Bob Etheridge (D-NC-02)
• Walter Jones (R-NC-03)
• David Price (D-NC-04)
• Mike McIntyre (D-NC-07)
• Robin Hayes (R-NC-08)
• Heath Shuler (D-NC-11)
• Mel Watt (D-NC-12)
• Brad Miller (D-NC-13)
• Bob Inglis (R-SC-04)
• John Spratt (D-SC-05)
• Jim Clyburn (D-SC-06)

Democracy Corps is James Carville’s organization. This poll was taken from August 20th through August 26th.

Now you should bear in mind that the samples were very small, less than 100 people in each Congressional district, so there is going to be a larger margin of error than in most polls. However, most of these percentages seem fairly accurate to me. The only two I question is NC-05 and NC-08. I don’t think that Virginia Foxx is in a statistical tie with Roy Carter, though I don’t doubt he isn’t close to her. I also think the gap between Robin Hayes and Larry Kissell is smaller than the eight point spread shown in this poll. Shuler is crushing Mumpower which I have been saying since the birth of this blog would be the case no matter which Republican Heath runs against. Plus, the fact that Mumpower’s race has been akin to a Barnum & Bailey juggling act only makes it more so. I don’t know why NC-12 and NC-13 were not included on this poll, but I think the conventional wisdom is that neither Mel Watt nor Brad Miller have much to worry about this year.

All and all, I don’t see any of the Congressional districts in North Carolina switching parties this year. I think all of the incumbents are going to be retained. If Kissell loses, I’m afraid my friends at BlueNC will become suicidal.

Update: I mistakenly had the Fifth District Democratic candidate listed as Roy Cooper instead of Roy Carter. That has been corrected.

Citizens Against Government Waste is a taxpayer watchdog group that ranks our Congressmen on their effectiveness of responsibly managing our tax dollars and not spending it on frivolous pork barrell spending.  Overall, the current Congress sucks the toejam off a homeless man’s foot in this regard, but our representatives from both North and South Carolina were a little better than most.  A rating of 100% is a taxpayer hero and a rating of 0% is a government elected thief stealing your money in order to pander to his constituents at reelection time.  Our two states received no 100s or zeros, but came close on both ends.

Our four Senators did a pretty good job.  Both Burr and DeMint received an honorable mention by the CAGW, each scoring a 97%.  Graham came in with an 87% and Dole with 73%.  Overall, these scores are acceptable.  The House?  Not so much….

The Republicans did decently for the most part, which surprised me because southern Republicans typically are some of the worst abusers for earmarking in Congress.  The Democrats all performed abysmally and Henry Brown, Robin Hayes, and Walter Jones could use some work themselves.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 24, 2008
Contact: Brock McCleary (202) 225-2576

Financial Services Members Urge President Bush to Reconsider Veto of Mortgage Bailout

WASHINGTON - Today, 14 Members of the House Financial Services Committee sent the following letter to President Bush regarding H.R. 3221, the Mortgage Bailout Bill.

“We urge President Bush to stand with the American taxpayer and stand by his original pledge to veto the largest corporate bailout in a generation,” Congressman Patrick McHenry (NC-10) stated.

July 24, 2008

The Honorable George W. Bush
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20500

Dear Mr. President,

We would like to respectfully request that you reconsider your position on H.R. 3221, the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.

Yesterday afternoon, 152 Members of the House voted against H.R. 3221. Of those Members, 149 were Republicans, and as Republicans we voted our consciences as the fiduciaries of American tax dollars.

It truly is unfortunate that we could not reach a compromise on a bipartisan bill that would ensure GSE safety and soundness and fiscal discipline, because right now we should be doing everything within our power to stabilize the GSEs and our housing markets to avoid the need for an even bigger taxpayer bailout down the road.

Should you exercise your veto, the House vote yesterday indicates we have sufficient votes to sustain it. This could result in revised legislation that eliminates some, if not all, of the extraneous and wasteful provisions, leaving a bill that could gain broad bipartisan support.

H.R. 3221 has been widely acknowledged as the most significant extension of the federal government into the financial and housing markets in a generation. As this bill moves from the House to the Senate, we respectfully request that you reevaluate your position. We hope you will consider exercising your veto authority so that Congress can have an opportunity to craft balanced legislation which ensures the long-term stability of the housing GSEs.

Sincerely,

Ranking Member Spencer Bachus (AL-6)
Congressman Patrick McHenry (NC-10)
Congressman Tom Price (GA-6)
Congressman Peter Roskam (IL-6)
Congressman Randy Neugebauer (TX-19)
Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann (MN-6)
Congressman Tom Feeney (FL-24)
Congressman Jeb Hensarling (TX-5)
Congressman Thaddeus McCotter (MI-11)
Congressman Scott Garrett (NJ-5)
Congressman Spencer Bachus (AL-6)
Congressman Walter Jones (NC-3)
Congressman Donald Manzullo (IL-16)
Congressman Ed Royce (CA-40)
Congressman Kenny Marchant (TX-24)

###

Already in North Carolina, Sen. Elizabeth Dole and Reps. Mike McIntyre and Walter Jones, both of whom represent coastal counties, have switched their positions.

All now support offshore drilling with the state’s approval. Dole and Jones are Republicans. McIntyre is a Democrat.

The News & Observer

President Bush lifted the executive order today, ironically put in place by his father, that banned drilling off the coast of much of the U.S.  While this does not clear the final path for coastal drilling, it eliminates one of the final hurdles.  The Congress still has to repeal their ban and while that has been an uphill battle for years, many representatives are changing their tune.

The quick pace of rising gas costs have made this a top issue for voters across the country.  With the exception of a few in heavily leftist areas, representatives in Congress are going to face strong resistance from their constituents if they continue to oppose efforts to open up our coastal waters.  We will undoubtedly see more members of Congress coming over to our side of the aisle on this.

06/10/08

10:19PM - All the big races have pretty much been called except the Democratic Lt. Governor’s race, but it looks like Walter Dalton is going to take that one. I’m heading to bed. Congrats to all the winners tonight!

10:09PM - Fred Smith has conceded the GOP Gubernatorial Primary to Pat McCrory.

10:02PM - With 75% of the vote in Carter and Hamby are tied 50-50 in the Democratic Primary for NC-05. With 60% of the vote in Bratton has a gigantic lead in the Democratic Primary for NC-06 with 60% of the vote and is likely to win that one. Johnson is leading Ivester 60-40 in the Dem Primary for NC-10. In the Democratic primary for NC-03 Weber is stomping Adame 70-30.

9:47PM - Democratic Labor Commissioner Primary

With 29 of 100 counties reporting:

• Mary Fant Dannon - 28%
• John Brooks - 25%
• Robin Anderson - 24%
• Ty Richardson - 23%

9:45PM - Democratic Lt. Governor Primary

With 26 of 100 counties reporting:

• Walter Dalton - 44%
• Hampton Dellinger - 35%
• Pat Smathers - 14%
• Dan Besse - 7%

9:42PM - Republican Gubernatorial Primary

With 26 of 100 counties reporting:

• McCrory - 46%
• Smith - 37%
• Graham - 9%
• Orr - 7%

9:39PM - Nick Mackey is leading Drew Saunders 54%-46%.

9:12PM - Walter Jones is leading Joe McLaughlin 62% to 38%.

8:59PM - Kay Hagan has officially won the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate race.

8:52PM - Mumpower is leading the race for NC-11. Armor is getting crushed. McCrory still has a slight lead state wide but Smith is not far behind. Dalton maintains a slight lead over Dellinger.

8:32PM - I am calling Bev Perdue as the winner of the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary. She is leading handily in all the largest counties in the state.

8:23PM - Kay Hagan is going to win the Democratic Senate Primary and it’s looking fairly certain that Beth Wood is going to win the Dem nomination for State Auditor.

8:14PM - Congressman Brad Miller has clearly won his primary challenge. Dalton and Dellinger are duking it out pretty close in the Dem side of the Lt. Gov race. Pittenger is clearly going to win the Republican nomination for that seat. Congressman McHenry is leading challenger Lance Sigmon 61 to 39.

8:05PM - Jim Neal is getting smoked by Kay Hagan in all the big counties, Mecklenburg, Wake, Durham. Bev Perdue is also leading Richard Moore. McCrory is in the lead in these counties as well and is getting over 70% of the vote in Mecklenburg.

As we all know the North Carolina primary is coming up on Tuesday and there are lots of races across the state for voters to decide. I am going to weigh in on a few here. Note, I am giving my opinion on who I think will win, not necessarily who I think is the best candidate or would like to see win.

I have already given my opinion on how I think the 11th Congressional Republican Primary will turn out.

In the Lieutenant Governor’s race there are primaries on both sides of the aisle. The Republican race is easy to call. Robert Pittenger has it locked up, end of story. The Democratic race is going to be a little more tight, but I think Walter Dalton is going to prevail by about 7 points, with Dellinger finishing second.

There are primaries on both sides in the 10th Congressional District as well. On the Democratic side I believe that Daniel Johnson will prevail over Ivester quite handily. On the GOP side, I think McHenry will win by a large margin. I think Sigmon’s ad about the Iraq attack after McHenry ran his video was a bit much for people to swallow and may have backfired on him. I think people viewed it as a cheap and dirty shot. I guess we’ll see on Tuesday. McHenry’s internals show him winning in a landslide. I don’t foresee as bad of a bloodbath as McHenry says it will be, but it won’t be a close race.

The Third Congressional District is going to be closer than people think, in my opinion. I predict that Walter Jones will triumph in the end, but not by a landslide margin. I think most Republicans in the district hold him in decent to high regards. I don’t feel that McLaughlin hitting Jones on his reversal of the war is a winning issue. The majority of Americans have grown tired of Iraq and that includes Republicans. Despite the high proportion of military families in the district, I don’t see Jones in much danger. People are also assuming that military families are automatically dedicated to the continued job in Iraq and that’s not a horse I would bet my money on.

In the U.S. Senate race Kay Hagan is going to trounce Jim Neal. That’s all I have to say about that.

Regarding the Presidential race, Barack Obama is going to win, but I don’t think he’ll break a ten point spread against Clinton. She has been gaining ground on him due to two things: her win in Pennsylvania and the continued media focus on Jeremiah Wright.

And now for the big one, the gubernatorial race. Bev Perdue wins the Democratic nomination hands down. Throughout the campaign she has generally lead Richard Moore, but there have been a few times that he has caught up with her in the polls. However, I think his sleazy attack ad about her husband selling Confederate memorabilia in his stores hasn’t played well with the public and it’s going to cost any chance he may have had.

On the Republican side, this is going to be close. While it’s technically a four man race, only Fred Smith and Pat McCrory are viable contenders on Tuesday. I think McCrory is going to pull this out, but not by much. It may not be enough for him to avoid a runoff and if that’s the case I think the following runoff election will favor Smith.

So there you have it. Tuesday awaits!

BEAUFORT, N.C. — The walls at Cubbie’s diner used to be plastered with pictures, stickers and campaign signs for U.S. Rep. Walter Jones, who championed the eatery’s idea to serve up “freedom fries” in the days before the start of the Iraq war.

But the Republican soured on the war soon after it started, and now there’s a new banner hanging above the grill: Joe McLaughlin for Congress.

“Walter abandoned us,” said Cubbie’s owner Neal Rowland. “Walter hopped on the bandwagon. But when the heat got turned up, he hopped off.”

The diner’s decision to support Jones’ opponent in next week’s primary reflects growing discord with the seven-term congressman in this coastal N.C. district, home to the Marine Corps’ Camp Lejeune and other bases. Though many Americans agree with him, Jones represents a district where his anti-war stance could cost him his job.

Charlotte Observer

I haven’t seen any polling on this race, but I have wondered how much of a danger McLaughlin really is to Jones on Tuesday.  Personally, I think Jones is going to win because the Iraq War has become very unpopular and I don’t think McLaughlin’s pro-war message is going to resonate much, even in that district.  It may be a closer race than expected, but I think Jones squeaks it out.

Yesterday Maryland took part in what was dubbed the Potomac Primary. Maryland joined the Commonwealth of Virginia and Washington D.C. in having their primary elections. The result on the presidential side and the primary focus of the media was a sweep for both Barack Obama and John McCain, but there was more to last night’s shalacking. Two incumbent Congressmen, Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD-1) and Albert Wynn (D-MD-4) both lost reelection to primary challengers within their perspective parties. According to AP writer Tom Raum, both were ousted as a result of being “out of touch” with the base of their parties, holding up their stances on the Iraq War, Republican Gilchrest being opposed to and Democrat Wynn supporting. Sound familiar?

Unlike Gilchrest who had a fairly leftward voting record, Jones has been quite conservative. After all this is the guy that coined the term “freedom fries”, but on the issue of Iraq he has supported a time table pullout angering many Republicans in his district and prompting the primary challenge from Joe McLaughlin. Now both Gilchrest and Wynn faced well funded opponents from special interest groups on both the left and the right. I don’t know how full McLaughlin’s campaign chest is, but last night’s results in Maryland must have surely sent shivers up Jones’ spine.

U.S. Rep. Walter Jones has taken a lot of flak from Republican Party regulars, mainly because he has questioned the wisdom of the war in Iraq.But while the Farmville Republican has angered some party stalwarts, there are signs the GOP establishment is not ready to abandon him.

Jones raised more than $50,000 last week at a Washington fundraiser attended by Rep. Tom Cole, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The News & Observer

U.S. Rep. Walter Jones wants a border fence.The Farmville Republican is the first member of Congress to sign the “Fence by Date Certain Pledge” to fully fund and speedily expedite a secure double fence along the U.S. Mexican border within six months after the next Congress convenes.

The News & Observer

Anyone longing for the alleged border fence is living in a fantasy world.  That fence is never going to get built.

Joe McLaughlin and Marshall Adame have declared they will both run for the 3rd District seat. McLaughlin, a Republican, will face Jones in the primary. Adame, a Democrat, will face the winner of that race in the general election if no other Democrats file in the race.Jones’ chief of staff, Glen Downs, said Jones has made a “conscious decision not to talk about the campaign until the filing period,” which runs from Feb. 11-29.Jacksonville Daily News

Congressman Walter Jones is going to have to stay on his game this election season. Not only does he have to deal with the normal general election, but he also has a challenger in the Republican primary.

The biggest issue, McLaughlin said, is the war in Iraq - which Jones opposes. Jones continues to support a troop withdrawal and voted against the recent troop surge. McLaughlin, a retired solider, calls it “a message of despair.”

“On virtually every major national security vote on the War on Terror in the last year, he’s voted with the liberals,” McLaughlin said. “The man we sent to Washington in (1995) is no longer the conservative member (he was).”

It is hard to gauge how successful McLaughlin will be. Jones represents a district that is heavily populated by military personnel who have been irked by his stance on Iraq. However, recent polls have showed that the majority of North Carolinians are not in approval with how the war has been fought. That could help give Jones a boost in addition to the advantage of incumbency.

Assuming he beats McLaughlin, he then goes on to face Marshall Adame in November.

“There is chaos in Iraq today, and there will be chaos when we leave. But until we leave, the beginning of the end of the chaos cannot start,” said Adame, who retired from the Marine Corps and spent three years in Iraq as a civilian contractor and state department official. Two of his sons have served in Iraq - one is recovering now from an injury he received there, and the other is still in Tikrit, he said.

Adame said he believes the U.S. should maintain logistic and administrative support in Iraq’s civil affairs.

“But I believe our combat troops need to come out,” he said. “We do owe something to the Iraqis, but we owe more to our own people. The best way to support the combat troops is to bring them home.”

Adame is a veteran and spent more time in Iraq than any current member of our Federal government. His opinion on this issue is not to be taken lightly. I trust the judgment of someone who has actually lived and breathed the situation far more than a stuffed shirt in Washington D.C. who goes and visits for a few days and never steps out of the Green Zone.

For now, McLaughlin must focus on beating Jones in the primary - a challenge he said he is ready to undertake.

“We’ve put together a very good team that’s helping us build some momentum,” he said.

He called the district a Republican one, in which it is “unlikely” that a Democrat - any Democrat - would win the election.

I think both Jones and McLaughlin would be foolish to write Adame off. If Jones barely eeks out a primary win against McLaughlin, there might be enough voters irritable with Jones’ Iraq stance to vote for Adame as an anti-Jones vote. If McLaughlin prevails in the primary that gives Adame better odds because there is no incumbency advantage to compete against. Open seats are almost always easier to win.

Furthermore, Adame appears to be, based on what I have read, a more centrist Democrat, much more representative of the traditional southern Democratic party and that plays well in North Carolina. Regardless, I have a feeling this will be one to bite your nails over.