Carolina Politics Online

Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, who heads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, called Kay Hagan a good challenger, but the race is close, he told Dome on Wednesday.

Schumer put North Carolina on par with other senatorial races he called “even or close” in states such as Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kentucky and Maine.

That mirrors the predictions of other political punditry outfits such as the Cook Political Report, which recently shifted North Carolina into the “leans Republican” category and away from solid Republican.

The N&O

This is a bad year to be a Republican, especially in a state that can doesn’t have a problem sending someone like John Edwards to the Senate and Mike Easley to Raleigh. Hagan should not be taken lightly.

In the presidential race, various pollsters are getting similar results.

The race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama shows little change, despite advertising by both campaigns in recent weeks. In all the polls, McCain holds a tiny lead, often within the margin of error. The inclusion of Libertarian Bob Barr does not seem to have a major effect on the results.

JULY 14-16: McCain 43, Obama 40, Barr 2

JULY 15: McCain 48, Obama 45

JULY 12-14: McCain 50, Obama 45

The State is reporting today that both Senators Graham (R) and DeMint (R) have changed their opposition to offshore drilling as has Congressman Joe Wilson (R) of the Second Congressional District. They are three more of a growing list of politicians now supporting our nation’s ability to drill offshore in the wake of out of control gasoline prices. I just posted the other that North Carolina Senators Elizabeth Dole (R) and Richard Burr (R) and Congressman Mike McIntyre (D) have also moved in the direction of offshore drilling.

Already in North Carolina, Sen. Elizabeth Dole and Reps. Mike McIntyre and Walter Jones, both of whom represent coastal counties, have switched their positions.

All now support offshore drilling with the state’s approval. Dole and Jones are Republicans. McIntyre is a Democrat.

The News & Observer

President Bush lifted the executive order today, ironically put in place by his father, that banned drilling off the coast of much of the U.S.  While this does not clear the final path for coastal drilling, it eliminates one of the final hurdles.  The Congress still has to repeal their ban and while that has been an uphill battle for years, many representatives are changing their tune.

The quick pace of rising gas costs have made this a top issue for voters across the country.  With the exception of a few in heavily leftist areas, representatives in Congress are going to face strong resistance from their constituents if they continue to oppose efforts to open up our coastal waters.  We will undoubtedly see more members of Congress coming over to our side of the aisle on this.

RALEIGH — Despite spending more than she raised in the second quarter of the year, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole  still has more than twice the money in the bank as her Democratic rival.

Dole, a Republican, had about $2.7 million in the bank as of July 1. Democrat Kay Hagan , a state senator from Greensboro, had about $1.2 million. Chris Cole , a Charlotte-area

Libertarian, said he does not plan on raising money for the campaign.

The News & Record

This appeared in the News & Record this morning.

But an FEC complaint from the N.C. Republican Party claiming Greensboro state Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, had taken $185,000 in illegal campaign contributions in her bid to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole got our attention.

Now get a load of this conversation the N & R had with a spokesman for the NC GOP.

He explained the party thought Hagan had gotten contributions in excess of legal limits because she had a bunch of donations from people who were related to one another — husband and wife mostly — that came in the same amount on the same day.

People can’t do that? Scoop asked.

Oh, they can, Woodcox explained, but in some circumstances they have to write separate checks or the campaign has to do a little additional paperwork.

And you have evidence that wasn’t done?

“No, I wouldn’t say there’s direct evidence,” Woodcox said. “But we think the Hagan campaign should have to show their work.”

Scoop called a few folks of nonpartisan stripes to vet the GOP’s claim, at least two of whom used words to describe the GOP’s complaint that we can’t print.

Puh…..lease………..

No wonder the North Carolina Republican Party can’t win a governor’s race or a state legislative majority.  If this is the kind of political sleaze they are accustomed to resorting to Dole had better be well ahead of her game.  There are plenty of real issues that people actually care about that they could use to paint Hagan as out of touch with North Carolina voters.  They can hit her on being unwilling to support offshore drilling while we have rising energy prices.  They can go after her on being the weaker candidate on immigration enforcement.  There are plenty of things to pick from.  This kind of obtuse smear campaign makes them look juvenile and petty.

So, a word to the North Carolina Republican Party.  If you want to win your big races this year you better wise up and ditch the childish antics.  People don’t want to hear it.

Dole said in an interview Thursday that when she first supported the moratorium on drilling in 2002 that gas was $1.40 per gallon, and now it’s more than $4.

“People’s opinions have evolved based on their circumstances,” she said. “Folks are really hurting, there’s no question about it.”

The campaign of Dole’s election challenger, state Sen. Kay Hagan, D-Guilford, labeled Dole as a flip-flopper.

The News & Observer

Yes, Dole has changed her position on this, though I don’t know that this really qualifies as a true “flip-flop.”  I think the current circumstances of energy prices allow members of Congress to modify their position on this issue without being accused of pandering or flip-flopping.  Undoubtedly, many Americans who may have opposed this at one point are changing their tune.

“The plan to drill off North Carolina’s coast is just another in a long line of bright ideas concocted and supported by the Bush-Dole team to pad the profits and the pockets of their oil-producing friends,” said Hagan’s spokeswoman, Colleen Flanagan.

I think this is a very foolish statement by Flanagan.  People aren’t happy about paying $4.00 a gallon per gas.  It may very well be $5 by November.  They are going to want Congress to act and resisting the push to drill offshore is going to cost Hagan votes, not win her any.

Others are also reconsidering. Last week, Rep. Mike McIntyre, a Democrat from Lumberton who represents the southern end of the N.C. coast, said skyrocketing gas prices are driving folks like him to take a second look at oil exploration if there can be enough assurances that it won’t harm the environment.

Will Hagan now accuse McIntyre of flip-flopping?  I wouldn’t bet on it.

Three Senators, belonging to the “party of personal responsibility”, the “party of small government”, and the “party of individual accountability” voted to throw away $300 billion of your tax dollars.  Lindsey Graham, Elizabeth Dole, and Richard Burr apparently think that it’s their job to hand your money over to irresponsible home owners, real estate speculators, and big companies like Countrywide Mortgage because they got in over their head.  Wasn’t that nice of them?

Stop paying your mortgage.  You don’t have to.  If you default the nannies in Washington will bail you out.  That’s the message that was sent by every Democrat present for this vote in the Senate and all but nine Republicans who were present in the Senate.  Jim DeMint was the only one of our Senators who voted against this feckless piece of legislation.

Dole is up for reelection in November, which I am sure plaid a role in her decision.  Now she can run around the state, when she actually comes here, and shamelessly pander to all the voters.  Look!  I voted to take other people’s money and give it to you so you can pay for that house you bought that you couldn’t afford in the first place!  Vote for me in November!

Two new polls-

President (Statewide)
John McCain- 45%
Barack Obama- 41%
(Civitas/TelOpinion-R)

U.S. Senate
Elizabeth Dole- 53%
Kay Hagan- 39%
(Rasmussen)

Politics1.com

The Club for Growth wants to scuttle a bill by Sens. Joe Lieberman, an independent from Connecticut, and John Warner, R-Va., that the Senate is scheduled to begin debating in June. Even without the ad campaign, the bill seems to lack the votes needed to overcome a filibuster.

With $250,000 in radio and television spots, the Club for Growth is targeting Republican Sens. Dole and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, and Democratic Sens. Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia, and Max Baucus and Jon Tester of Montana. Dole, a co-sponsor of the bill, faces re-election this year, as do Alexander, Baucus and Rockefeller.

The News & Observer

Toomey explains further down the precise problem with this bill:

Club for Growth President Pat Toomey, a former Republican congressman from Pennsylvania, called the legislation a “massive redistribution of wealth.”

“This would be extremely destructive to economic growth,” he said. “If it dies here in June, we will be very alert to any prospects of its revival.”

Republicans are jumping on this bill simply to placate environmental alarmists in an election year. For all the hype over global warming, we have seen revelations over the past few months that the planet might actually be cooling now. In fact, you’ll notice the global warming crowd doesn’t refer to it as global warming anymore, the term is now “climate change.” It’s kind of hard to get people to swallow your argument when reality is showing otherwise.

Regardless of what is happening, the jury is still out on whether or not the human race has anything to do it. I think the idea that we puny humans can have the kind of effect these people claim is absurd, personally. The planet has gone through warming and cooling trends throughout its existence, but that is completely irrelevant to these people. The bottom line is that the whole global warming spiel is nothing but a method to fool people into engaging in global Marxism. Let it be known, that is the ultimate goal. Elizabeth Dole shouldn’t allow herself to get caught up in this. It will be economically destructive to the people she is supposed to be representing.

The Heritage Foundation has done a state by state analysis on how this bill will effect the American people.

Table 1: Estimated Economic Impact of S. 2191 in North Carolina

Table 2: Changes in Household Energy Prices in North Carolina Due to S. 2191

RALEIGH (AP) — Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Kay Hagan plans to hold a roundtable with six North Carolina sheriffs to discuss illegal immigration.

The event in Raleigh on Tuesday will give Hagan a handle on a centerpiece issue of her opponent, incumbent Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Dole has encouraged sheriffs over the past year to participate in the federal 287 (g) program, which trains local deputies to identify illegal immigrants. Sheriffs can then initiate deportation proceedings.

The News & Record

Hagan is undoubtedly going to have to support strict enforcement of immigration laws if she wants to have a chance at winning this race. It will be interesting to see what side she comes down on, but I would be surprised if she brushes aside the issue or embraces legalization like many in her party.

North Carolina: SurveyUSA polls from the Tarheel state show two competitive statewide races. In the open gubernatorial race, Lt. Governor Bev Perdue (D) leads Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) by a 52%-45% vote. Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) leads State Senator Kay Hagan (D) by a vote of 50%-46%.

Politics1.com

Congressman Robin Hayes has introduced the House version of legislation calling for improved barracks conditions on Fort Bragg, according to a press release.

Hayes, a Democrat from North Carolina, introduced the measure Thursday, the release said.

Hayes’ bill is a companion to legislation introduced in the Senate by Sen. Elizabeth Dole, a Republican from North Carolina, the release said.

The Fayetteville Observer

These standards need to extend to all U.S. army barracks within our borders and outside our borders where doable. Hayes’ bill is supposed to address that need.

Also, the Observer has a mistake in their article. Robin Hayes is a Republican, not a Democrat.

Mort Kondracke said U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole may be in for a fight.

At a luncheon speech before the North Carolina Chamber this afternoon, the longtime Washington-based political reporter said that Dole may have a tougher re-election campaign than expected.

“I was amazed that Elizabeth Dole was in as much trouble as she seems to be,” he said. “Washington does not know that.”

A recent poll showed Dole only five points ahead of Democratic nominee Kay Hagan.

The News and Observer

The poll in question was from Public Policy Polling, which showed Dole with 48% and Hagan with 43%. Primary victories can sometimes earn candidates a bounce- much like post-convention bounces. Whether or not they last depends on the candidate and the electoral conditions. Nevertheless, Republicans should be very worried about this. Dole has universal name recognition, while Hagan was almost unknown outside Greensboro a few months ago. For it to be this close (and for an incumbent to be under 50%) is not good.

By the way- as this is my first post as a new blogger, I’d like to thank Sam for giving me the opportunity. I’ll try not to screw it up

Rasmussen Reports, which I have always felt are the most accurate of all pollsters, has released a survey from May 8th showing Democratic nominee Kay Hagan leading incumbent Elizabeth Dole by one percentage point. For obvious reasons, this is not good news for Dole. Whenever an incumbent falls below 50% in a poll it is a sign of vulnerability, more so when they are trailing the challenger.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole has introduced a bill in Congress that aims to improve housing conditions for soldiers by ensuring accountability for the maintenance of Army barracks.

“Our soldiers deserve safe, clean housing, and anything less is unacceptable,” Dole, a Republican, said in a prepared statement issued today.

Dole’s action comes after a video posted on YouTube showed mold, peeling paint and broken plumbing fixtures in barracks at North Carolina’s Fort Bragg. The video triggered a worldwide inspection of Army barracks.

The News & Observer

The first-term senator from Salisbury is pushing to expand a long-dormant federal program — known as 287(g) — that allows Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to train local law authorities in enforcing the laws, using databases to check immigration status of arrestees and beginning deportation proceedings.

About 400,000 illegal immigrants live in North Carolina, according to a 2006 study conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, a national nonpartisan research group based in Washington. Some state authorities and officials complain they take up space in jails and are a drain on state resources.

Five counties in the state, including Charlotte’s Mecklenburg County, are participating and have identified thousands of undocumented aliens in custody.

It’s popular with North Carolina Republicans — and more than a few Democrats — but not the two leaders in the state’s May 6 primary for the Democratic ticket challenging Dole.

“This is another unfunded federal mandate,” said state Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro. “We’re not saying that we need to be the IRS agents and collect federal taxes. Why are we now being asked on a state level to be immigration officers? The federal government must provide the necessary employees to do this job.”

Dole noted the program is voluntary, adding that she has supported additional funding for federal immigration officials.

The Herald-Sun

Hagan is correct to a degree. The Feds should be handling this and not pushing the responsibility off to the states, but there is nothing wrong with allowing states to enforce this issue within their own state lines. It is a popular program in North Carolina and the reality is right now the Federal Government isn’t doing anywhere near enough to deal with the problem and based on the possible successors for Bush, it doesn’t appear that will change in the next administration.

GREENSBORO — Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jim Neal said Tuesday he is the only party hopeful capable of beating Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole, dismissing the candidate leading the race — Kay Hagan — as just another political insider.

Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, has a built a wide lead in both polling and fundraising leading to the May 6 primary. She has the support of the state Democratic leadership.

But Neal said in the race’s only televised debate that he can beat Dole because he offers something different.

“We have to offer a contrast,” Neal said. “Democrats win on contrast and standing firm on values. And that’s what I’m about.”

Charlotte Observer

I don’t mean to disparage Mr. Neal here, but I think he is fooling himself if he believes that only he can beat Dole. Neal hasn’t been able to raise anything close to sufficient funds for this race. I think it’s unlikely that he’ll win Tuesday’s primary, but even if he does, how does he expect to mount a significant challenge to Elizabeth Dole without money?

WASHINGTON — Democratic Senate candidate Jim Neal’s campaign was nearly broke heading into the crucial final weeks of the N.C. primary season while opponent Kay Hagan shored up her campaign with personal money, records released Friday show.

Neal, a financial consultant from Chapel Hill, and Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, are vying to take on Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., in November.

Neal had $18,000 in cash as of April 16. Since his campaign began, he has raised $249,000, including a $120,000 loan from himself, according to campaign finance reports on file with the Senate Office of Public Records.

Hagan had $317,000 in the bank, including a $50,000 personal loan she made at the end of the quarter.

“It shows her commitment to the campaign,” her spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan said of the loan. “This is a race she’s running because she truly believes she can be an effective voice for North Carolinians in Washington and she doesn’t feel like Elizabeth Dole has been doing that,” Flanagan said.

For every dollar Hagan took in since January, Dole has raised two — $901,000 compared with $1.8 million.

Charlotte Observer

The lagging in fund raising tells me that state Democrats don’t consider Liddy Dole to be all that vulnerable.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole is crowing this morning about the Senate’s approval last night of an amendment she offered to provide more money to help local law enforcement agencies “apprehend, identify and remove criminal illegal aliens.”

Dole, a Salisbury Repubican, is referring to the so-called 287(g) program. Under the program, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) works with local law enforcement to combat illegal immigration.

A handful of North Carolina counties, including Mecklenburg and Alamance, have such agreements with ICE.

The News & Observer

At least something good came out of yesterday’s deplorable session on Capitol Hill.  Amid the slipshod negotiating of the 2008-09 historical $3 trillion budget riddled with tax hikes on the lower middle class and more than generous increases to welfare handouts to the government addicted, our state and local law enforcement will at least have some more tools at their disposal to combat the growing problem of illegal immigration in our communities.